Speculation Over Powell’s Future, Fed Likely To Taper Despite Disappointing Jobs Number

All eyes were on the job report this morning since the Fed has telegraphed publicly that the pace and breadth of recovery in the labor market would be a key indicator to help determine its timing on policy changes. The jobs report was indeed disappointing, but Powell prepared markets for a taper even in the event of such a miss. He said at the last meeting, “It wouldn’t take a knockout, great, super strong employment report.” Essentially, the Fed specified that it would focus on the accumulated hiring process and put less focus on the month-by-month patterns given the unique challenges posed by the Delta Variant.

The report came in at 194,000 jobs which was significantly below the expected level. As in recent previous jobs misses, economists appeared to grossly overestimate hiring by state and local governments. The report did show that the hiring in July and August was stronger than initial reports. There was enough positive in the report that most market commentators suspect the Fed will go ahead with its plans to taper in November.

Job vacancies and wage growth suggest that there is some healthy tightness in labor markets despite the healthcare related dislocations and hesitations. Small businesses are more excited to hire than at any time in recent history. The s...

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