July Outlook 2023

The cap-weighted S&P 500 continues to try and grind higher, as there seems to be an overall lack of fear. When looking at market action and how things are priced, it would appear that 1) there will not be a recession; 2) forward profits are forecasted to begin a steep...

June Outlook 2023

The equity markets continue to be quite fractured, with larger-cap Tech/AI-related in one bucket and dominating weighted indexes like SPX and NDX, and broader-based and equal-weighted metrics like SPW and Russell 2000 in the other. After a surge of outperformance in the former, it appears that traders now want to...

May Outlook 2023

The combination of the inflation fight dragging on, the labor market remaining resilient, no Fed easing, the economy continuing to move towards some type of landing, and the ongoing lowering of forward corporate profit expectations will likely limit overall equity-market upside potential, arguably raising the odds for a challenging period...

April Outlook 2023

During March, the S&P 500 once again found technical support around 3800 and has bounced on declining bank contagion fears and a return of dovish Fed expectations.  Investors are also beginning to digest economic data that is showing signs of weakening.  The ongoing debate about the future path for Fed...

2023 February FSI Sector Outlook

My work still suggests that the ongoing equity bounce that began at the October bottom and has been working its way higher is a counter-trend bear market-rally that will end. Admittedly, it has gone further over a much longer time span than both my indicators and macro views were signaling....

2023 January FSI Sector Outlook

I did a deep dive into my sector (GICS L-1) work and have updated my thoughts.  The main positioning takeaways remain unchanged from my last couple of updates — relative attractiveness for Defensive non-cyclicals and select offensive Growth, with above-Neutral views for Health Care, Staples, Utilities, and Energy. I remain...

2022 December FSI Sector Outlook

I did a deep dive into my sector (GICS L-1) work and have updated my thoughts.  The main positioning takeaways remain unchanged from my last update — relative attractiveness for Defensive non-cyclicals and select offensive Growth, with above Neutral views for Health Care, Staples, Utilities, and Energy. I remain below...

2022 November FSI Sector Outlook

Despite the U.S. equity market having an explosive start to October, my work and key indicators remain unfavorable. The ASM indicator for the S&P 500 is continues to weaken and still needs more time to reach its maximum pessimistic reading for this cycle.  Historically, this does not bode well for...

2022 October FSI Sector Outlook

Despite the U.S. equity market having an explosive start to October, my work and key indicators remain unfavorable. The ASM indicator for the S&P 500 is continues to weaken and still needs more time to reach its maximum pessimistic reading for this cycle.  Historically, this does not bode well for...

2022 September FSI Sector Outlook

My work and key indicators remain unfavorable now that “Dovish Pivot” by the Fed has been definitively taken off the board, and for now equity market downside risk is considerable. The ASM indicator for the S&P 500 is still falling and looks to need more time to reach its maximum...

2022 August FSI Sector Outlook

The rally which began at the June lows for the S&P 500 is still making its way higher as it gained some fuel last week after the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference comments, which were taken quite bullishly because of some interpreting that a “Dovish Pivot” had been...

2022 July FSI Sector Outlook

Despite a rally in the back half of June, the month and the quarter were terrible, which ranks among one of the worst six-month starts of a year ever.  There were a host of reasons behind the weakness in June, but chief among them were growing economic slowdown fears and...