The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

VIDEO: We discuss how the growing apprehension of markets likely eases in next few weeks, perhaps starting with a possible "soft" April jobs report.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:43)

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Over the past few weeks, wariness and apprehension towards equities increased. In our many conversations with institutional investors over the past few days, this is apparent. Many have become outright bearish because of the fears of accelerating inflation and the choppy markets (volatility always discourages). In our view, we expect this "fear of May" to cede to "buy in May" as we expect the cadence of incoming data to be supportive of improving financial conditions:

The "fear of May" stems from multiple factors, among them:- Inflation progress stalled 1Q24: Hawks see re-acceleration- US 10-yr yields moved from 3.90% to 5.0%- Stocks gained ~30% after 5 consecutive months of gains, then fell -4% in April- PROFIT SQUEEZE: Wage higher than expected. Starbucks and others see falling traffic- BONUS: Japanese Yen needed 2 BoJ interventions As our clients know, we believe the stalling of inflation is mainly due to the stubborn housing and auto insurance components. And these are exp...

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