Optimism
$OP
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INFLOWS RESUME On Monday, market sentiments were rattled by a surprisingly strong manufacturing PMI figure, marking the first expansionary reading in 18 months. This led to a rise in rates, with risk assets across the board experiencing selloffs amid renewed inflation concerns and fears that the Federal Reserve might need to implement further measures to cool the economy. However, in our crypto comments video on Tuesday, we outlined a couple...
Adding RON and IMX As a Different Flavor of ETH-beta and Gaming Exposure (Core Strategy Rebalance)
MARKET SHRUGS AT HOT CPI The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a hotter inflationary environment than forecasted for February. Despite the surprise in the numbers, market participants appeared largely unmoved, suggesting that the potential impact had already been factored into their calculations prior to the release. This resilience reflects a broader sentiment that a rates-driven selloff, in response to the CPI figures, is not a significant near-term risk....
In a volatile day, $BTC (-4.51%) has made a new all-time high, briefly surpassing $69k before retracing to the low $65k range. $ETH (+1.55%) is showing strength, trading around $3.7k as attention may shift towards Ethereum and related names ahead of the Dencun upgrade next week. Layer-2 tokens support that notion, as $OP and $ARB are outperforming today, gaining 13.46% and 4.44%, respectively. Some of the meme-mania has subsided, with...
FLOWS BEGET MORE FLOWS We have recently discussed the potential return of crypto being correlated with equities due to the new category of market participants entering the fold. However, price action this week suggests that inflows into the BTC ETFs may be throwing water onto that theory. It seems apparent that, at least in the near-term, that the ETF flows narrative is gaining steam, and it is likely that the...
ETH GAINING RELATIVE MOMENTUM Given the success of Solana and Bitcoin's persistent dominance in this bull market, many have been quick to write off ETH. There is no doubt that ETH faces its own set of challenges, including a complex modular stack and potential cannibalization by Layer 2 solutions, which, while crucial to ETH's scaling roadmap, can sometimes fragment liquidity and users. Despite these issues, ETH continues to advance along...
Equity markets are under pressure this morning, with the QQQ and SPX indices dropping over 1% and approximately 0.70%, respectively. This downturn occurs amidst a backdrop of a declining DXY and lower rates, underscoring a continued decoupling between risk assets and the bond market since early January. The crypto market is also experiencing a pullback, following Bitcoin's premarket attempt to surpass the $53k mark and Ethereum's notable weekend achievement of...
BREAKING AWAY While we maintain that macro conditions are still the most critical factor in assessing the medium/long-term trajectory of BTC prices, daily returns of the leading cryptoasset continue to exhibit a lack of defined correlation with any major macro asset. To us, the biggest reason for this sustained lack of correlation is the advent of the spot BTC ETF. A prime example of how ETFs are influencing BTC's performance...
Monday morning picked up right where yesterday left off, with $BTC surging toward $50k, momentarily touching the key level across several exchanges. The rally appears to be driven by spot market demand, as evidenced by a significant spike in spot volume while funding rates remain muted (see chart below). A substantial portion of this volume is likely entering the market via spot ETFs chasing the positive weekend price action. Concurrently,...
WEATHERING THE STORM Heading into Q1, the key risks identified were: (1) A potential QRA supply shock, as long-term interest rates could surge due to a possible shift in bond issuance towards longer-duration securities, (2) the repricing of interest rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve downplayed expectations regarding the timing and frequency of such cuts, and (3) concerns regarding the dynamics between the expiration of the Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP)...
Equity indices continue to march higher, with the QQQ registering a near 1% gain on the day and the SPX following closely behind, up approximately 75 bps. It's a broad rally with all sectors in the green for the day, but technology is outperforming, up over 1%. Rates started the day lower, but the longer end of the curve is now marching higher, likely due to a major 10-year auction...
QRA IN LINE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS _THE RESULTS_ The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) was the first of two major macro events to transpire on Wednesday. Leading up to this, on Monday, there was an indication that the net borrowing for the current quarter would be $760 billion, which is $55 billion lower than the initial $815 billion estimate, and the total funding needs for Q2 would be just over...
THE GBTC PROBLEM We have been watching spot BTC ETF flows closely since their launch two weeks ago, and while overall net flows remain decidedly positive, the market seems hung up on GBTC outflows. As a reminder, the outflows we care the most about are those from entities that are not rotating into other spot BTC ETFs. This is comprised of some speculative capital that played the run-up into ETF...
