FSI Macro
- US Policy
Tuesday the President goes to the Capitol to make his first in-person State of the Union (SOTU) address. It comes with some wind to the President’s back with the powerful half-million jobs gain in January, but questions emerge surrounding the Chinese spy balloon. Congress loves...
- First Word
Powell could tilt hawkish this coming week, but larger narrative is Fed "disinflation" is a massive course correction. Strong Jan equity returns borrowing from Feb, but dip buying still makes sense.
The strong January jobs report (+517k vs 188k expected), along with strong JOLTS (aka job openings) and Fed Daly's comments (hawkish), was overall too "hawkish"-ly tilted for equities, and thus, the sell-off on Friday.the strong jobs was a too much of a good thing as it risks an escalation of...
- Earnings Daily
FS Insight 4Q22 Daily Earnings Update - 2/6/2023
95 companies are reporting this week.Of the 253 companies that have reported so far (51% of the S&P 500), overall earnings results are beating estimates by a median of 6%, and 70% of those reporting are beating estimates.On the top line, overall results are beating estimates by a median of...
- Your Weekly Roadmap
Nasdaq Posts Fifth Straight Week of Gains
Good evening: _“Our core holdings are the same as last year. We own shares of the best businesses in the world. Our attitude is that of a museum director: We only want to own masterpieces.” - François Rochon_ Investors digested a lot this week between the FOMC meeting, big-tech earnings,...
- Daily Technical Strategy
Minor stalling out doesn’t appear too serious
Friday’s minor pullback seems to have occurred near a short-term timing pivot which might result in 2-3 days of weakness before turning price back higher. S&P and NASDAQ both lost more than 1% on the day, and pulling back to end near lows of the session could result in Monday...
- US Policy
Busy Week With Fed and Debt Ceiling – SOTU on Deck
It was a busy week in DC with the Fed moving rates up 25 bps and the White House meeting between Biden and McCarthy. The Fed’s move to increase rates by 25 bps was widely expected. It once again demonstrates that under Chair Powell the Fed is going to telegraph...
- Earnings Daily
FS Insight 4Q22 Daily Earnings Update - 2/3/2023
108 companies are reporting this week.Of the 246 companies that have reported so far (49% of the S&P 500), overall earnings results are beating estimates by a median of 6%, and 70% of those reporting are beating estimates.On the top line, overall results are beating estimates by a median of...
- Daily Technical Strategy
US breakout encouraging, but likely won’t move in a straight line
THE NEAR-TERM RALLY CONTINUES TO PRESS HIGHER, BUT LIKELY WILL FIND SOME SHORT-TERM RESISTANCE FRIDAY AND/OR MONDAY WHERE A MINOR CONSOLIDATION GETS UNDERWAY. Short-term evidence of upside exhaustion is now present on $SPX, $SPY, $QQQ charts based on DeMark indicators along with minor cyclical peaks which signal a short-term change...
- First Word
Powell cited "disinflation" 13 times in Feb FOMC presser (0 in Dec). Fed moved forward goal post = strengthening case >20% gain in 2023.
Going into this Fed decision day, investors told us anyone "rational" expects the Fed to come out hawkish, particularly given how much financial conditions eased since October:Equities were under selling pressure early in the session falling as much as 1% and then sinking further post-Fed decision. But by the end...
- Earnings Daily
FS Insight 4Q22 Daily Earnings Update - 2/2/2023
108 companies are reporting this week.Of the 207 companies that have reported so far (41% of the S&P 500), overall earnings results are beating estimates by a median of 6%, and 70% of those reporting are beating estimates.On the top line, overall results are beating estimates by a median of...
- Daily Technical Strategy
Technical analysis of META, AAPL, AMZN
Thursday’s breakout in US stock indices served to give more proof about the intermediate-term trends turning more bullish while growing ever closer to short-term resistance targets, which might be reached by Friday. US Treasury yields along with the US Dollar fell sharply on the day, bolstering the argument for this...