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Alpha City

Alpha City

Ah, I'd love to wear a rainbow every day And tell the world that everything's okay But I'll try to carry off a little darkness on my back 'Til things are brighter, I'm the Man In Black -Johnny Cash The earnings revision cutting cycle that...

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  • Alpha City
June 24

This Rally Will Likely Fail, Earnings Revision Cuts Likely In Early Stages

Beware of this rally. My work suggests that oversold tactical bounces like we experienced this week should be faded, not bought. I don’t think we are in “hide under your desk” markets either. However, based on research it is tough for me to envision a scenario where equities have a...

  • Alpha City
June 24

Sub-industries (L-4) To Avoid or Short — Beware Cyclicality

For the last several months, we have been discussing our expectations for economic slowdown fears to become more widespread and that a negative estimate revisions cycle had a near 100% chance of occurring.  Additionally, we have commented that our work has been suggesting that all things cyclical — Industrial Cyclicals,...

  • Alpha City
June 17

My Work Still Suggests That Rallies Should Be Faded & Thoughts on Energy Weakness

I am continuing to urge caution and vigilance for equity investors. My research is strongly suggesting that there still is downside ahead, and evidence is slowly building for having to introduce a new downside target below my longstanding key zone of 3,500-3,600. UGH, don’t shoot the messenger as it’s the...

  • Alpha City
June 10

My Earnings Work Continues To Show Deterioration, CPI Puts Water on Dovish Fed Pivot

The market was hit with two body blows today, the first was the hotter than expected CPI Print which came in at 8.6% on expectations of 8.3%. The second blow was the lowest reading for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, ever. Yes, you heard that right. Those who...

My Work Suggests More Downside Ahead

Fed Vice Chairperson Lael Brainerd’s comments on Thursday supported the hawkish thesis I’ve been repeating for many months, and arguably took the quick end to Fed tightening off the table for now. Despite a few glimmers of hope and some evidence that headline inflation has peaked, the latest readings remains...

My Work Suggests The Market Still Faces Several Risks

There was a bounce this week. As I've previously said, markets were getting tactically oversold, and I expected a tactical bounce after eight consecutive down weeks. Regardless of the positive price action today there are still plenty of signs that we are late in the cycle. Hence, you can probably...

My Work Suggests More Downside Ahead

The market is bouncing around. My work does not confirm that a “shocking rally” is imminent.  With being said, the equity market is tactically oversold, and a bounce could happen at any moment.  Importantly, my earnings revisions indicators do not support the likelihood of a powerful and sustainable bounce at...

Sector Neutral Sub-Industry (L-4) Pair Trade Ideas

We have been communicating to clients that our work sees the market slowly moving towards an idiosyncratic/stock picking environment. This report will identify sector neutral sub-industry pairs.  These can used for either over/underweight by traditional long only investors or as long/short pairs by traders.  In deriving these pairs, we will...

Market Update from Brian Rauscher

Brian Rauscher, Head of Global Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation at FSInsight, provides a timely market update as the S&P 500 closes below the key 4000 level outlined in his recent Wall Street Whispers publication. *Recorded on May 9, 2022

  • Alpha City
April 29

My Updated View Is Bearish

Earnings season is in full swing. The character of the market has been volatile and choppy. It can be an overwhelming time with many companies reporting and plenty of new information. I wanted to drop a quick line to let our subscribers know about my evolving macro/market views and share...