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DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Positioning has reset materially with oversold BTC readings, capitulation in IBIT and MSTR, negative funding and declining open interest, improving U.S. spot demand, and early signs of a turn in ETF and stablecoin flow trends.Macro and liquidity conditions are shifting in a supportive direction as Fed net liquidity bottoms, high-yield spreads stabilize, the dollar weakens, and small-cap tech outperforms, creating a backdrop that historically favors BTC and...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Bitcoin led today’s rebound (dominance higher) on strong volume. This suggests better odds of a sustained move and provides confirmation that the idiosyncratic seller is gone.Despite the rally, funding remains negative, signaling ongoing bear complacency and potential for short covering if BTC holds strength.Follow-through after yesterday’s capitulation-like setup strengthens the case that MSTR may have bottomed.U.S. spot demand is returning as the Coinbase–Binance spread continues trending higher.Vanguard...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Today’s move was sparked by macro drivers (yields, JPY rally, risk lower) but amplified by concerns tied to MSTR and increasingly skittish bulls.MSTR shifted its narrative by openly entertaining BTC sales for the first time, something previously viewed as off-limits, even though it was always implicitly possible given their collateralization framework.Despite this apparent willingness to sell BTC, investors seem to be overreacting, considering the company has already...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:HASSETT TRIAL BALLOON: Markets interpreted Kevin Hassett’s emergence as Trump’s top Fed Chair pick as a dovish signal.DOVISH REPRICING POTENTIAL: Fed Funds futures for next Dec sit near 3%, above Miran’s 2.50 to 2.75 preference, leaving room for further dovish adjustment (good for crypto).BANK CAPITAL RELIEF: FDIC easing of the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio supports Treasury liquidity and lending, which on the margin is a positive for...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BIG VOLUME = SELLER ABSORPTION: IBIT posted its highest volume since inception on Friday, likely reflecting significant seller demand being absorbed. Today’s follow-through reinforced that signal.FORCED SELLERS LIKELY GONE (FOR NOW): BTC finally provided beta to the S&P 500 again, tracking broader risk assets. That’s a strong indication that the forced/motivated sellers who dominated the past few weeks are no longer active.U.S. SPOT DEMAND IMPROVING: The Coinbase–Binance spread flipped into...
Capitulation Signals Strengthen as Fed Shows Openness to Easing and SOL Gains a Potential Supply-Side Tailwind
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:RECORD IBIT AND HYPERLIQUID VOLUMES: A combination of (1) BTC’s sharp overnight drop and constructive rebound, (2) all-time-high IBIT volumes, and (3) record BTC-denominated volume on Hyperliquid collectively points to sellers being absorbed and a potential capitulatory backdrop forming.POLICY EASING SIGNALS: Fed President John Williams signaled openness to further rate cuts, and both Fed Funds Futures and Polymarket repriced December cut odds to >50%, helping ease recent concerns that...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:OVERSOLD INDICATORS ARE EXTREMELY STRETCHED: Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day return is in the 6th percentile since 2020, the 7-day return is in the 3rd percentile, and its deviation from the 50-day moving average has reached a z-score of roughly -2.8. These readings have only appeared during major stress events and historically tend to coincide with exhaustion in selloffs and the setup for multi-week bounces.ETF HOLDERS CAPITULATE: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:Hawkish Fed commentary and renewed concerns around private credit contributed to today’s crypto weakness.A clear positive was the absence of the forced or highly motivated seller that pressured the market last week.My bigger concern is the continued complacency and build-up of bullish leverage in BTC perps.NVDA earnings and the upcoming BLS jobs report could be meaningful catalysts later this week.Overall, while the risk-reward has improved sharply since...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:BTC dropped more than 4% while dominance also moved lower. That pairing is extremely rare and usually appears during periods of forced or highly motivated selling. Today's altcoin resilience (on a relative basis) supports the view that the pressure is concentrated in BTC.Funding remains positive, and the Coinbase discount persists.FOMC communication continues to lean hawkish. Soft job data and strong NVIDIA earnings next week could support a...
In today's video, I walk through the key points from yesterday's strategy note, including the near-term crypto market setup, the factors behind my shift toward a more risk-averse stance, and the indicators I am watching that could turn the outlook in a more positive direction. TICKERS IN THIS VIDEO: BTC -0.27% ETH 0.02%
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:SHUTDOWN RESOLUTION NEARING: The Senate advanced its funding bill, with a House vote expected midweek and Polymarket implying a resolution by Thursday. Ending the shutdown would remove a major drag on liquidity and growth, improving the backdrop for crypto.MUTED FOLLOW-THROUGH IN CRYPTO: Despite a strong Sunday rally and firm equity gains Monday, BTC -0.27% and ETH 0.02% showed limited upside and a persistent Coinbase discount, signaling weak U.S. spot participation. We’d...
DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S VIDEO:MARKET DRIVERS: Weak labor data and renewed concerns around the AI CapEx cycle weighed on markets. Challenger job cuts rose to the highest level since the first quarter, with “artificial intelligence” cited as the second most common reason for layoffs. This underscores the tangible economic impact of automation and made it an odd session for AI equities to lead the market lower.ON-CHAIN DYNAMICS: Supply-adjusted coin days destroyed continues to...