Financial Research

US Policy

US Policy

Fed Chair Powell spoke this past week at the European Central Bank Forum and he repeated his view that fighting inflation is the Fed’s highest priority to prevent an era of persistently high inflation.  However, he continues to express his view that while a soft...

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  • US Policy
June 27

Powell commits to inflation fight while Roe ruling shapes Midterms

From a markets perspective, last week was highlighted by the testimony of Fed Chair Powell before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.  While there were no surprises that impacted markets the chair squarely faced the issue of rate increases leading to a recession.  Under questioning from...

  • US Policy
June 24

DC Focused on Guns and Abortion While Powell Commits To Inflation Fight

While markets may be agnostic to the issues of abortion and guns, the question for many in the political world is whether or not these two issues will impact the 2022 midterm elections. With President Biden’s popularity near record low levels, Democrats appear headed to substantial losses when Americans go...

  • US Policy
June 21

Fed Act – Congress looks to Democrats agenda – Biden focuses on Mideast and China

The long awaited action by the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) was announced last week, and as markets had begun to suspect, the base interest rate was increased by 75bps.   At his press conference after the rate hike announcement Chair Powell said the following; “Clearly, today’s 75 basis point...

  • US Policy
June 17

Fed acts while Congress talks Jan 6 and guns

The long-awaited action by the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was announced on Wednesday, and as markets had begun to suspect, the base interest rate was increased by 75bps. Until the release of the hot CPI and the University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers, markets were banking on 50bps,...

  • US Policy
June 13

Fed week, Reconciliation, guns and Jan. 6 dominate week ahead

:This Tuesday and Wednesday the Fed’s FOMC meets on interest ratesWednesday at 2:00 Chair Powell meets press and will discuss rate decision and directionNew Fed Members and role in rate policySchumer and Manchin continue Budget Reconciliation talksPress will focus on guns and Jan. 6 hearings FOMC AND INTEREST RATE HIKE...

  • US Policy
June 10

Congress focused on guns and 01/06, markets await Fed

The DC week was highlighted by a dramatic evening of testimony before the 01/06 House Committee; time will tell if there is any political impact on the case the Committee is building against former President Trump.  This week also saw talks between a bipartisan group of Senators proceed behind closed...

Fed, Reconciliation, Oil and Foreign Policy, PA Senate Race Set

Congress returns with focus on guns and 1/6 insurrection hearings.Senate Banking announces vote on Barr to be on Fed Board, and date of Powell midyear testimony.Can Schumer and Manchin find a compromise on mini-Build Back Better.Biden walks tightrope on Middle East policy with talk of July trip to region.David McCormick...

Guns, Reconciliation and MBS

As Congress returns next week the focus is likely to be on gun legislation after the mass killings of children and teachers at the Uvalde elementary school.  The House is likely to set up votes on several measures, and in the Senate a bipartisan group of Senators have had talks...

Fed, Asia Trade Policy and Midterms

Congress out for Memorial Day break.Powell to White House for Tuesday meeting.Fed FOMC meeting approaches June 14-15, 50bps hike seems most likely.Will new Governors have any impact?Biden meets with leaders of Japan, India and Australia to explore trade partnership.Did Georgia primary impact Trump’s role in Republican Party? FED The White...

Biden in Asia, Trump and Republicans

Last week President Biden traveled to South Korea and Japan to meet with allies and discuss strategy to deal with China.  The centerpiece of the visit was a mini regional summit in Japan when the President was joined by the leaders of India and Australia.  The Australians had just conducted...