• US Policy
Fri March 17

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meets next Tuesday and Wednesday and, in the wake of the failures of SVB and Signature Bank, all eyes will be on the central bank.  It was less than two weeks ago that Chair Powell testified before...

White House is keeping the market on the cliff edge this week, cases now rising in 30 states (+14)
  • US Policy
Mon March 13

SVB, Fed, Budget, and debt ceiling

Obviously DC and the entire financial world is focused on what to do about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday and then Signature Bank on Sunday.  US officials worked over the weekend and before markets opened in Asia put together a package that protects all depositors at...

  • US Policy
Fri March 10

Budget, Debt Ceiling, and the Fed

It was a busy week in DC for economic issues with President Biden officially kicking off the budget talks related to the debt ceiling and Fed Chair Powell addressing Congress on the state of the economy. On Thursday the White House released the President’s budget for fiscal year 2024 that...

  • US Policy
Mon March 6

Powell testifies, Biden budget and 49/49 Senate

This coming  week there will be two big events in Washington that could impact markets – Powell's testimony and Biden’s FY 2024 budget.  Undoubtedly the most important for investors is the semi-annual Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jay Powell.  Since the Fed’s current fight against inflation first began Chair Powell...

  • US Policy
Fri March 3

Big Week Ahead in DC

Next week has several events in Washington that could impact markets.  Probably the most important is the semi-annual Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jay Powell.  As Tom Lee said in his report this past week, Chair Powell has emphasized how rate decisions will be data driven and that is likely...

  • US Policy
Mon February 27

Congress returns with budget battles and FOMC minutes are released

Congress returns to DC this week after a break for Presidents Day.  The break included global travel by both the President and leaders of Congress with the focus on the war in Ukraine.  Last week started with President Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv and the participation of both the President...

  • US Policy
Fri February 24

Fed Minutes and Data, Congress on Break

This week combined the release of the minutes of the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) from early February with the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation number, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price measure. The PCE climbed 5.4 percent in January, basically the same as the gain of 5.3 percent...

  • US Policy
Tue February 21

Fed developments, US and China talk, debt ceiling

Tomorrow will be a big day for Fed watchers as the minutes of the February meeting are released.  As I have written in the past when Chair Powell meets with the press after the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meetings, his remarks are fact checked when three weeks later the...

  • US Policy
Fri February 17

Fed Focus, and Will China and U.S. Talk This Weekend?

The past week began with the widely expected official announcement that Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard will leave the Board to become President Biden’s director of the National Economic Council. In this position, she will be playing a key role in developing the Administration’s future economic policy. The departure of...

  • US Policy
Mon February 13

CPI release highlights week as debt ceiling overhangs DC.

This week the Labor Department will issue the CPI for January.  While there are many data points that market watchers, economists and the Federal Reserve look at when making forecasts, in political circles no figure has the weight of the CPI number.  Politicians and the press focus on the CPI...

  • US Policy
Fri February 10

Biden Shows Energy in SOTU as Chinese Spy Balloon Provides Unifying Impetus in House

The past week was highlighted by the President’s State of the Union (SOTU) address and the ramifications of the Chinese spy balloon that crossed the U.S. I thought Biden’s SOTU address had surprising energy, but the speech was too long. The back and forth on Social Security showed President Biden...

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