• US Policy
Mon November 28

Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the November FOMC meeting.  At the time of the meeting the Committee released a rather dovish statement that was followed by a more hawkish Chair press conference.  At the time I cautioned that, while hawkish, the...

Biggest lesson of Jan 2022 is market fearful of Fed.  But in 2010, fed fund futures expected 2.5% FF by 2012... but that did not happen for another 7 years
  • US Policy
Mon November 21

Fed Minutes and Lame Duck Congress

While Wednesday may be a slow news day as investors and everyone else make final preparations for putting turkeys in the oven, for financial markets it is a big day as the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the November Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting.  As I have written...

  • US Policy
Fri November 18

New Congress leadership decided, much work to do before yearend

This past week saw the framework established for the new Congress which gets sworn in on January 3. Speaker Nancy Pelosi ended her 20 years as leader of the House Democrats serving as the first, and only, woman Speaker. Much has been written about the role she played in managing...

  • US Policy
Mon November 14

Election results - House appears R, Senate remains D

A week after the US went to the polls, control of the Senate remains in Democratic hands while the House appears to be headed towards a narrow Republican majority. The final counting in some key races has yet to be finalized. News organizations have projected the final count will be...

  • US Policy
Fri November 11

Elections: No Red Wave but Divided Government Likely

It’s Election Day plus 3 and key races remain undecided. However, at this point, it appears that the Republicans will have a very narrow majority in the House and that control of the Senate will have to wait for the December 6 run-off in Georgia. Both polls and history had...

  • US Policy
Wed November 9

Divided Government – Policy implications

While yesterday’s election was not the large red Republican wave that polls had anticipated it appears that Republicans will narrowly take control of the House, and that control of the Senate is likely to be decided in a GA runoff. Democratic candidates did better than expected in both the House...

  • US Policy
Fri November 4

Midterm Elections Are Days Away

With the midterm elections only a few days away the basic forecast seems unchanged; the Republicans will take control of the House and the Senate remains too close to call but polling indicates a movement to Republican candidates as election day approaches. While the summer saw voter interest shift to...

  • US Policy
Mon October 31

Fed Day Wednesday and Elections one week to go

After a month of discussion about the next move by the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), decision day comes this week. The FOMC starts to meet on Tuesday and around 2:00 PM on Wednesday the Fed will announce the rate move. A 75pbs increase is widely anticipated. In my...

  • US Policy
Fri October 28

Fed and election focus of week ahead

After weeks of guessing what the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) may do on interest rates, Wednesday is decision day, and the all-important post-meeting press conference by Chair Powell happens around 2:30 pm ET on Wednesday. As Chair of the Fed, Jay Powell has been consistent in wanting to...

  • US Policy
Mon October 24

Fed, Elections, Debt Ceiling all connected

While, in the coming two weeks, all political eyes in Washington will be on final runup to the midterm elections and the battle to control Congress, markets will be focused on this Thursday’s release of 3rd Quarter GDP and the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 1-2. ...

  • US Policy
Fri October 21

Elections and Fed

The days are counting down as the November 8th midterm elections approach. Polls over the last few weeks seem to indicate a shift of momentum to the Republicans. In the House, with 435 races, it is hard to forecast as polling is scarce and local issues that don’t register on...