Solana

$SOL

RATES DUE FOR A BOUNCE (MAYBE) As the crypto market continues to exhibit strength, and despite eradicating one of the market’s biggest unknowns in Binance just last week, it remains essential to be aware of near-term risks. Recently, the bond market has experienced a significant rally, and there's been a notable decline in the DXY. Combined with nominal stimulus in Asia, these factors have contributed to a substantial increase in...

BINANCE RISK MITIGATED One of the most significant idiosyncratic risks in the crypto market has been the uncertainty surrounding Binance and potential action from the Justice Department against the world's leading exchange. Earlier this year, we anticipated that any disciplinary actions would likely involve criminal charges against Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and a fine against the exchange. From our September note: _Source: Fundstrat_ Today, these views were realized. CZ appeared in...

MARKET PRICES IN RATE CUTS The key macro event this week was the release of the October CPI data, which came in notably cooler than anticipated. The year-over-year CPI was slightly lower at 3.2%, just below the predicted 3.3%, while the month-over-month figure remained steady at 0.0%, in contrast to the expected 0.1%. This cooler inflation data spurred a surge in equity indices. It also bolstered investor confidence in the...

MARKET BREADTH EXPANDING The crypto market is exhibiting signs of increased breadth, particularly noticeable as altcoins, typically further out on the risk curve, begin to attract more interest. As illustrated in the data below, the total market cap for altcoins (including stablecoins) is advancing towards its previous year-to-date high. ETH has not yet seen a substantial rally, but it appears to have established a potential near-term bottom against BTC. This...

TREASURY REFUNDING AND ITS IMPACT ON ASSET PRICES The bond market has been experiencing notable volatility, predominantly due to a phenomenon known as a bear steepening. This situation arises when short-term interest rates remain stable, but long-term rates rise precipitously. We attribute this volatility largely to an increase in the supply of long-duration assets, propelled by a growing budget deficit and the expectation of ongoing Treasury issuances. While this bond...

Equity indices reacted positively to the release of the U.S. Treasury’s funding schedule this morning, with the SPY and QQQ both rising over 0.60%. The Federal Reserve Committee is set to meet today and announce a decision on interest rates at 2 pm EST. The market is not expecting any surprises as interest rates will likely be held at current levels. Crypto markets are mixed ahead of the Fed meeting,...

Major equity indexes are recovering after giving up some of yesterday's gains. Short-term rates are on the rise, causing an uptick in the DXY index, while long-term rates have edged lower, potentially in response to yesterday's Treasury refunding preview that suggested Q4 debt issuance might be less than initially expected. These developments precede a pivotal macroeconomic day tomorrow featuring PMI, JOLTs data, and an FOMC decision. Additional information on the...

INSTITUTIONAL CAPITAL BACK IN THE FOLD It took 10 months, but BTC finally made it to the lower bound of our forecasted range for the year ($35k - $44k). The past week has been remarkable for crypto markets, marked by a notable divergence from traditional financial markets. This breakaway may portend a shift in investor sentiment, potentially signaling increased confidence in digital assets as an independent asset class. In any...