Fri September 15

ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.

We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration:...

Wed September 13

Market internals worsening despite indices holding up

US EQUITY INDICES AND TREASURY YIELDS REMAIN QUITE CHOPPY, BUT THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE REMAINS LOWER OVER THE FINAL COUPLE WEEKS OF SEPTEMBER.  TREASURY YIELDS LOOK LIKELY TO BREAK...

Mon September 11

Important week ahead, and we expect August CPI (9/13) of +0.20% core or less to further reduce odds of a Nov hike, a positive for equities. Even as UAW strike looms.

We discuss: An important week lies ahead, most notably August CPI on 9/13 but also $AAPL debut and potential UAW strike.  That said, we still view Sept as front-loaded on...

Fri September 8

Headwinds now, but expect tailwinds to prevail in Sept. Upward revisions in profits strongest argument against recession.

We discuss: How headwinds of VIX, yields, apprehension are growing.  But tailwinds are emerging this month as well.  The most notable is EPS revisions inflected positive and along with other...

Wed September 6

Sept off to a weak start, but key data coming later this week. Bottoming of US PMIs strengthens case for Industrials $XLI

We discuss why we remain constructive on the market for September despite Tuesday's minor selloff in equities and rise in November hike odds. Manheim release this week and CPI/PPI next...

Wed August 2

JOLTS + ISM are "tame" on inflation = good. Key economic data remains July jobs (8/4) and July CPI (8/10). DeMark "13" on NYSE % >200D bears watching.

Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 4:26). https://vimeo. com/850703730/78f10bb9c1? share=copy Among the incoming macroeconomic data, the 2 key ones are coming in the next week and a half—...

Wed July 12

INTRADAY ALERT: June CPI report shows downside break in inflation = future path of Fed hikes likely lower = supports stocks

NEW: SECTION (ABOVE) ADDED IDENTIFYING KEY RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUPER GRANNIES Today's June CPI was very good, showing a downside break in core inflation (core CPI) and hints of sustainable decline...

Wed July 12

The last two "meaningful" CPI positive surprises (Oct 2022 and Feb 2023) saw +4%-5% 5D rally = 180 to 225 points today. Thus, 100 point gain could be "low end" of a potential rally.

NEW: SECTION (ABOVE) ADDED IDENTIFYING KEY RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUPER GRANNIES ________________________________________________ _TODAY'S NOTE WILL INCLUDE A SHORT VIDEO UPDATE. WE DISCUSS THAT OF THE LAST 8 CPI REPORTS, MARKETS HAD...

Mon June 26

Given first half 2023 gains >10%, history suggests second half gains ~12% = S&P 500 >4,700 by YE. This may be due to the "Nutty Professor" effect and evident in FAANG stocks.

NEW: SECTION (ABOVE) ADDED IDENTIFYING KEY RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUPER GRANNIES ________________________________________________ _PLEASE CLICK BELOW TO VIEW YESTERDAY'S MACRO MINUTE (DURATION 4:18):_ https://vimeo. com/839567861/ee22e2cc48? share=copy WORD OF NOTE: I AM VISITING...

Fri June 9

Strength in stocks YTD is explained by better fundamentals + drop in VIX. And now 26 groups are in solid positive trend (vs 4 a month ago). Next week remains one of most critical of 2023.

The upside breakout in equities puts the S&P 500 near 4,300, a key round number and near the August 2022 highs (4,325). Our base remains that S&P 500 will gain...

Wed June 7

So much gloom out there, yet the S&P 500 is up 12%. Sell-side "chasing stocks" higher but even after 9 target changes, only 5 Strategists see upside into YE. Softer inflation strengthens case for "dovish" June hike.

It is not an exaggeration to say investors just seem so gloomy. I don't have to look far. My twitter feed is full of doom and "don't chase stocks due...

Mon June 5

Market breadth expanding as 8 of 11 sectors above 20dma (vs 2 last month). 4 reasons "fresh capital” should invest in Industrials. 17 stock ideas.

As we move into the second week of June, our confidence that S&P 500 will gain >20% in 2023 has increased. The decisive upside breakout last week helps, as are...