Financial Research
Technical Strategy
- Technical Strategy
Today, after 4 fortunate years, I am leaving Fundstrat Global Advisors to join RBC Wealth Management as their in-house technical analyst. Prior to Fundstrat, I had a 25-year career on the sell side with RBC Capital Markets so I am very excited to join the buy side of RBC where I have many long-term relationships...
- Technical Strategy
Market Down But Not Out; Could Follow 2011 Similar Move
The S&P 500 index’s (SPX) historic decline last week sliced through most of the moving averages at the heart of technical analysis, with a break below the 200-week simple moving average at 2636 the most recent casualty. That four-year moving average is a proxy for the secular uptrend of the...
- Technical Strategy
Market Chop Can Provide Good Entry, Watching CAT
Yet another record making week – The bull market of the March 2020 crash has already notched a number of records that history students will study for years to come. This past week only added to the story with focus on retail investors rattling seasoned hedge fund professionals with eye-popping...
- Technical Strategy
As Leading Stocks Become Advanced, Homebuilders are Bottoming
Impressive price and breadth uptrends remain intact – The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 small-cap indices made new all-time highs again this week keeping their price trends firmly intact. Peeling the onion to look inside these indices, participation or breadth, as measured by the S&P and NYSE advance-decline lines, also...
- Technical Strategy
US Dollar is Likely in Early Stages of Q1 Risk Off Bounce
2021 Technical Outlook Webinar replay (click here) – If you missed my 2021 Technical Outlook Webinar this past week, I’d encourage you to watch the replay. In addition to outlining the longer-term cycles I view as important, along with expectations for rates, currencies, and commodities, I also discuss the reasons...
- Technical Strategy
Markets on Track For Q1 Tactical Peak; EBAY is a Timely Buy
After yet another volatile start to the week, equity markets have resumed their uptrend following the Georgia election with cyclicals accelerating. Many managers have had to scramble to add risk back to their portfolios raising the question “has anything changed technically?”. The simple answer is no. As I wrote last...
- Technical Strategy
The Perspective on a Potential 1Q20 Equity Market Pullback
After a historic rebound in 2020, the question investors are asking the most is are we heading into year-end correction? The short answer is I’m expecting equity markets to begin a correction, or at least a pause, in the early part of 1Q21. However, I caution investors from overreacting to a pending pullback. As I […]
- Technical Strategy
A Q1 Pullback Appears Likely but Temporary
Coincidently, as I was preparing for this week’s note, I came across a quote from Peter Lynch, the legendary portfolio manager of Fidelity’s Magellan Fund between 1977-1990. Peter noted that “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves”. I...
- Technical Strategy
Short Lived Pullback Underway - Key S&P Levels to Focus On
Equity markets pulled back this week but I’m expecting the current pullback to be short-lived with further upside into year-end and early Q1. By February, however, weekly indicators tracking 1-2 quarter shifts are likely to be overbought after bottoming at the beginning of September with most cyclical stocks. The pending...
- Technical Strategy
ADI: An Emerging Cyclical Tech Name to Buy on Pullbacks
Bull market behavior – At the risk of stating the obvious, the surge in equities has been nothing short of impressive. The number of stocks participating on the upside continues to expand as more economy sensitive stocks either break out above their June-October trading ranges, or in the case of...
- Technical Strategy
The Ebb and Flow Between Growth and Cyclical stocks
BABA and NTES are timely again after their recent corrections If you didn’t have a chance to join our FSInsight Virtual Conference on Thursday you can find the replay at this link (click here). My technical analysis presentation begins at 1:39:20 and at 1:48:10 I discuss the hotly debated topic...