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Macro Research

Latest Updates

Latest

US Policy

Mon February 6

SOTU on Tuesday, debt ceiling and Fed rate rise

Latest

First Word

Mon February 6

Powell could tilt hawkish this coming week, but larger narrative is Fed "disinflation" is a massive course correction. Strong Jan equity returns borrowing from Feb, but dip buying still makes sense.

Latest

Earnings Daily

Mon February 6

FS Insight 4Q22 Daily Earnings Update - 2/6/2023

Daily Technical Strategy

Fri February 3

Minor stalling out doesn’t appear too serious

US Policy

Fri February 3

Busy Week With Fed and Debt Ceiling – SOTU on Deck

Your Weekly Roadmap

Fri February 3

Nasdaq Posts Fifth Straight Week of Gains

First Word

Latest

First Word

Mon February 6

Powell could tilt hawkish this coming week, but larger narrative is Fed "disinflation" is a massive course correction. Strong Jan equity returns borrowing from Feb, but dip buying still makes sense.

The strong January jobs report (+517k vs 188k expected), along with strong JOLTS (aka job openings) and Fed Daly's comments (hawkish), was overall too "hawkish"-ly...

Thu February 2

- Powell cited "disinflation" 13 times in Feb FOMC presser (0 in Dec). Fed moved forward goal post = strengthening case >20% gain in 2023.

Wed February 1

- Unless Fed moves "goal posts," equity markets increasingly playing different game (easing financial conditions). Tech leading "cancelled" buy the dip strategy. Base case still >20% rise in 2023.

Mon January 30

- Bond and equity volatilities at lowest levels since 2021 = supportive >20% rise in 2023. Updating "Granny shots" +12 adds (-12 deletes). 2023 YTD +39bp outperformance. 2022 +395bp outperformance. List adds attached.

Technical Strategy

Daily Technical Strategy

Fri February 3

Minor stalling out doesn’t appear too serious

Friday’s minor pullback seems to have occurred near a short-term timing pivot which might result in 2-3 days of weakness before turning price back higher. ...

Thu February 2

- US breakout encouraging, but likely won’t move in a straight line

Wed February 1

- Technical analysis of META, AAPL, AMZN

Tue January 31

- Healthcare should soon hit support and reverse in February

Your Weekly Roadmap

Fri February 3

Nasdaq Posts Fifth Straight Week of Gains

Good evening: _“Our core holdings are the same as last year. We own shares of the best businesses in the world. Our attitude is that...

Fri January 27

- Stocks Continue Strong Start to 2023

Fri January 20

- Stocks Finish Week Strongly, With Nasdaq Up for Three Straight Weeks

Fri January 13

- Stocks Notch Best Week Since November As Nasdaq Winning Streak Extends to Six Days

FSI Sector Allocation

FSI Sector Allocation

Tue January 17

2023 January FSI Sector Outlook

I did a deep dive into my sector (GICS L-1) work and have updated my thoughts. The main positioning takeaways remain unchanged from my last...

Thu December 8, 2022

- 2022 December FSI Sector Outlook

Fri November 4, 2022

- 2022 November FSI Sector Outlook

Thu October 6, 2022

- 2022 October FSI Sector Outlook

Quantitative Strategy

Quant Commentary

Tue January 31

Mid-Earnings Season Update

EARNINGS SEASON – REWARD FOR BEATING HAS FALLEN Last year, we repeatedly noted the tendency for companies that beat earnings estimates to subsequently outperform the...

Thu January 26

- Market Valuation - Jan 2023

Tue January 10

- January 2023 Factor Commentary

Thu January 5

- January 2023 Update

Granny Shots

First Word

Wed October 19, 2022

Updating "Granny shots": +9 additions, -5 deletions

Today is the October quarterly rebalance of our Granny Shots portfolio. The Granny Shots is a list of our core stock holdings, using 6 thematic/quantitative...

Fri September 2, 2022

- Best bets in 2022 - Week 35

Fri August 26, 2022

- Best bets in 2022 - Week 34

Fri August 19, 2022

- Best bets in 2022 - Week 33

Brian's Dunks

Sat January 28

January 2023 Dunks Update

Our research, which has been developed over two decades of Wall Street experience, strongly suggests that our Dunks Product can add significant value by supplementing...

Thu December 29, 2022

- December Dunks Update

Tue November 22, 2022

- November Dunks Update

Tue October 25, 2022

- October 2022 Dunks Update

Portfolio Strategy

Global Portfolio Strategy

Tue December 27, 2022

What Our Clients Are Talking About Behind the Scenes

Well, Santa certainly doesn't appear to be making an appearance this year. Maybe Rudolph's nose, which normally lights his path, wasn't working, or Santa's sleigh...

Wed June 15, 2022

- Fed Meeting Does Not Change Outlook — Fade Any Rally

Fri June 10, 2022

- My Earnings Work Continues To Show Deterioration, CPI Puts Water on Dovish Fed Pivot

Fri June 3, 2022

- My Work Suggests More Downside Ahead

Wall Street Whispers

Wed February 1

Caution Advised: Negative Considerations May Not Be Priced In

The ongoing equity market levitation is looking like the path of least resistance is moving up, but today’s much anticipated FOMC meeting may throw a...

Wed January 25

- What Our Clients Are Talking About Behind the Scenes

Mon January 9

- What Our Clients Are Talking About Behind the Scenes

Tue December 27, 2022

- What Our Clients Are Talking About Behind the Scenes

Alpha City

Fri July 22, 2022

My Work Shows Choppy Seas Ahead For Equities

After equity market strength through Thursday, Friday saw some weakness as earnings and growth fears once again resurfaced. The earnings season has thus far been...

Fri July 15, 2022

- Earnings Pain And More Downside Likely Ahead

Thu July 14, 2022

- Sector Analysis Tutorial: Brian Rauscher’s Proprietary 8-Panel Analysis

Fri July 1, 2022

- My Work Suggests 3600-3500 As Next Key Range

Signal From Noise

Thu January 26

Signal From Noise: Making Better Investment Decisions

“Life is a sum of all your choices.” – Albert Camus, French philosopher One of the most controversial decisions in Super Bowl history occurred in...

Fri January 13

- The ABCs of ESG Investing

Thu December 29, 2022

- Leaving 2022: What Kind of Year Has It Been?

Thu December 15, 2022

- Ukraine Looking Forward: Recovery Prospects and Investment Ideas

US Policy

Latest

US Policy

Mon February 6

SOTU on Tuesday, debt ceiling and Fed rate rise

Tuesday the President goes to the Capitol to make his first in-person State of the Union (SOTU) address. It comes with some wind to the...

Fri February 3

- Busy Week With Fed and Debt Ceiling – SOTU on Deck

Mon January 30

- Fed Week and Debt White House Meeting

Mon January 23

- Debt ceiling, Fed decision day nears and House hearings begin

Fed Watch

Thu November 3, 2022

What Does The Fed’s November Hike Mean For Markets?

"As investors, we also always have to be aware of our innate and very human tendency to be fighting the last war. We forget that...

Thu September 22, 2022

- What Does September’s Rate Hike and Dot Plot Mean For Markets?

Fri September 2, 2022

- The Smoke Clears After Jackson Hole, Jobs Report Encouraging

Fri August 26, 2022

- Special Edition: Everything You Need to Know About Jackson Hole

Earnings Daily

Latest

Earnings Daily

Mon February 6

FS Insight 4Q22 Daily Earnings Update - 2/6/2023

95 companies are reporting this week.Of the 253 companies that have reported so far (51% of the S&P 500), overall earnings results are beating estimates...

Fri February 3

- FS Insight 4Q22 Daily Earnings Update - 2/3/2023

Thu February 2

- FS Insight 4Q22 Daily Earnings Update - 2/2/2023

Wed February 1

- FS Insight 4Q22 Daily Earnings Update - 2/1/2023

Macro Videos

Fri April 22, 2022

MoneyShow Virtual Expo with Raoul Pal & Tom Lee

Why the Wall of Worry Hitting Markets Doesn't Mean a Bear Market Is Starting & Best Strategies to Navigate MoneyShow Virtual Expo: April 19-21, 2022...

Mon April 11, 2022

- Tom Lee: The Fed may not have to do nine hikes this year

Thu April 7, 2022

- Tom Lee On BTC and the Beef Trade

Thu February 17, 2022

- NewEdge Wealth | 2022 Market Outlook with Tom Lee and Rob Sechan

Tom Lee's Equity Strategy

Fri September 2, 2022

ISM prices decline points to future steep fall in PPI (like a rock). Remote-work creating same job posting in multiple cities (overstating tightness?) 2H rally thesis strained but still intact

There is a lot of trepidation about markets in September. The seasonals worry investors (one of the toughest months), coupled with midterm election uncertainties (not...

Fri August 19, 2022

- With housing weakening, investors bringing out their “2008 hammers” again. Cognitive bias in full force. 2H rally intact.

Fri August 12, 2022

- Inflation showing decisive “break” in pattern. Rally strengthening = focus on lower quality. 6 names. 2H rally intact.

Fri August 5, 2022