Technical Strategy

Research

Newton's Upticks

Introduction

History shows Sir Isaac Newton not only to have excelled as a Mathematician and physicist, but also to be a skilled astronomer, alchemist, theologian, and author.

Many who have studied Newton’s history know that he published a book called “Opticks” back in 1704, expounding his corpuscular theory of light. He considered light to be made up of extremely subtle corpuscles, that ordinary matter was made of grosser corpuscles and speculated that through a kind of alchemical transmutation. As he puts it, "Are not gross Bodies and Light convertible into one another ... and may not Bodies receive much of their Activity from the Particles of Light which enter their Composition?"  

Newton also constructed a primitive form of a frictional electrostatic generator using a glass globe. He was the first to show a diagram using a prism as a beam expander, and also the use of multiple-prism arrays.

Fast forward to October 2022, in homage to the great Isaac Newton, I am now unveiling my first technical Stock list, which on a subtle play on Newton’s Opticks, will be called “Upticks.”  This will be an intermediate-term technically derived stock list of some of my favorite liquid names within various sectors of the S&P 500 which I feel might offer attractive risk/reward opportunities at this stage of the market.

These ideas are largely based on stocks at/near 52-week highs that are showing excellent technical structure and little evidence of technical deterioration.   However, in some cases, I will elect to buy stocks that are extreme laggards, if my work shows that they’re primed to begin moving sharply off the lows following initial consolidation.  Note, stocks of this sort are far more likely to be tactical longs than buy-and-hold positions.  However, largely, this list comprises my thinking of the best stocks within most sectors of the S&P 500.

The duration for these selections will largely be 4-6 weeks and hopefully longer. I have included technical resistance as well as Support for those who wish to utilize these. Stocks that move under Support before resistance range is met will be removed from my list and not addressed in future emails. Furthermore, upside resistance is a guideline only, and 100% technically derived and not related to fundamentals of the underlying issuer. Occasionally upside resistance ranges might prove temporary only and i shall adjust if/when these resistance zone is reached if i feel that further technical upside is possible. It's up to each investor to utilize their own risk management and adhere to their own investment timeframe given their own time horizon and risk tolerance.

Methodology

  • Relative strength vs sector and index
  • At/near 26-week and/or 52-week highs
  • Positive momentum and/or Upward sloping moving averages on multiple timeframes
  • Lack of DeMark exhaustion on daily, weekly, monthly and/or in combination based on TD Sequential and/or TD Combo indicators
  • DeMark “TD 13 countdown Buys” utilizing TD Sequential and/or TD Combo indicators at/near lows on multiple timeframes
  • Elliott-wave theory
  • Lack of deterioration within its sector and at/near upper quartile of its annual range
  • Above-average bullish bases for lengthy timeframes which might precede technical breakouts
  • Short-term downtrends within existing intermediate-term uptrends which provide attractive risk/reward opportunities
  • Leading stocks within sectors poised to benefit from cyclical upturns

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