Rally post-Powell solidifies investors need to grab "bull market playbook" (in place since Oct 12, 2022). Look at the absolute monster rally in high-yield.

Since the "hot" Jan jobs report (2/3), equities were under pressure into Fed Chair Powell's appearance at the Economic Club of DC (Tue at 12pm ET). But as we noted in our INTRADAY WORD (sent Tue am), we expected Powell to stick with the dovish script.

  • despite the chaotic trading intraday, equities ultimately decided Powell stuck to a dovish script
  • the equity sell-off during his fireside chat was fueled partly by the rise in yield (10Y soared) but then markets positioned squarely and equities recovered sharply.
  • in our view, today (Tuesday) is a validation that the "bull market" playbook is the dominant force in play
  • At what point will investors stop calling this a bear market trap?
  • And realize that equities bottomed on 10/12/2022 -- in fact, the Fed is no longer "crushing equities"
  • meaning, a bull market has been underway for the past 5 months
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HIGH-YIELD: Monster rally in spreads bodes well for equites

Take a look at the performance of high-yield spreads below.

  • spreads have been on an absolute tear
  • from 650bp OAS (options adjusted spread) to 418bp today (Tuesday), wow
  • spreads are back to levels last seen in May 2022
  • S&P 500 was ~4,300-4,400 back then, so you get the picture
  • there is a lot of room for equities to catch up to HY
The video in this report is only accessible to members

And as we noted in our 2023 ou...

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