Speaker vacates vote; early look at Senate

As Congress returns the House once again faces a Republican rebellion from a handful of its most conservative Members to oust Speaker Johnson with a motion to vacate (MTV).

This whole issue, which plagued Speaker Kevin McCarthy, was created when McCarthy agreed to a new House Rule that allowed a single Member to move to vacate the Office of Speaker and a vote was mandated. This was part of his effort to win the Speakership last year.  Under the leadership of Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the rule required that a majority of the majority support the motion to vacate before it can come up for a vote.

Hard right Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Green (MTG) has filed a motion to vacate but hadn’t demanded a vote.  Last week she held a press conference and announced that she would call for a vote this week.

As a House aide, I remember the votes for Speaker when each party voted for their candidate.  Indeed, that is what happened when the motion to vacate was offered against McCarthy.  While only eight Republicans voted to vacate the Office of Speaker, all Democrats voted along partisan lines against the Republican Speaker.  However, the House Democratic leadership and other rank and file Members believe that when Speaker Johnson permitted a vote on Ukraine aid, he earned their respect and also their votes against a motion to vacate.

Democrats voting to support a Republican for Speaker would be unprecedented, but Democrats know that their constituents are frustrated with the way Congress is operating and this negative feeling has an impact on all the Members of the House, and this will lead to many House Democrats voting against the motion to vacate.

Speaker Johnson is in fact a very conservative Member and has a reservoir of support among Republicans who know and like him.  Furthermore, Johnson has solidified his support with former President Trump who would have the power to play a central role in the vote if he chose to. After the 2020 election Johnson led the effort in the House to get Members to sign an amicus brief supporting Trump’s efforts to overthrow the results before the Supreme Court.  This past weekend Johnson was down at Mar-a-Lago for a big Republican event. 

All signs point to a dramatic vote this week in the House with most Republicans and some Democrats voting against the motion to vacate, and support Speaker Johnson.

Senate races favor Republicans

From my days in politics I take with some skepticism political polls before Labor Day.  Prior to Labor Day many voters haven’t really focused on the November elections.  However, there are some trends that point to a strong year for Republicans in the Senate.

While all 435 seats are up every two years in the House in the Senate with their six-year terms only a third of the body faces the voters every two years.  This year 34 Senate seats are up.  Of the ten seats pollsters view as most competitive, nine are currently held by Democrats.  Three are in states that have moved clearly into the Republican column: West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana. 

The West Virginia seat is viewed as safely in the Republican column with the retirement of Democratic Senator Joe Manchin.  West Virginia has become one of the most reliable Republican states and it is assumed the Republican will win.  Assuming there are no other changes a Democratic victory in West Virginia would tie the Senate at 50/50.

Montana is another reliable Republican state that has a popular Democrat, Jon Tester, as the incumbent Senator. This year Senator Tester will have to run in a Presidential year in a state that Donald Trump won by over 16 points in 2020.  While ticket splitting has become more common it will be hard for Senator Tester to swim against that strong of a current.

Ohio, which used to be viewed as a swing state, has moved more firmly into the Republican column.  In 2020 the state elected newcomer Senate candidate JD Vance and all the statewide office holders are Republicans.  Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown won with 53% of the vote in 2018 but that wasn’t a Presidential election year.  This year former President Trump will be on the ballot, and he carried Ohio in 2020 by slightly over 8 points. 

Maryland is a state that both parties had assumed would be in the Democratic column even though incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Cardin was retiring.  However, the political world was surprised when former Republican Governor Larry Hogan announced that he would run for the seat.  Hogan is an anti-Trump Republican who was popular in the state, but term limited and had to step down.  Hogan will be a tough candidate to stop even in this strongly Democratic state that Biden carried by over 30 points in 2020.  Hogan will need significant ticket splitting but he has a strong and positive political brand in the state.

The only competitive state that many believe could be doable for Democrats is Texas where Senator Ted Cruz regularly gets very low approval ratings.  Senator Cruz famously was pictured heading to Cancun in 2021 in the wake of one of the worst winter storms the state had ever seen.  Millions lost electricity.

One of my first political bosses often cautioned us that while he was very popular in the district, he could be defeated by doing something stupid that became a big issue in the press.  He felt confident that his votes reflected his district, but getting caught in a move like Senator Cruz could cost him a lot of votes. 

Democrats have nominated Congressman Colin Allred who many believe will put up a tough race against Senator Cruz.  Many political observers believe that Texas has been moving towards being a swing state rather than safe Republican.  This Senate race could be a real test of whether a Democrat can win statewide.