Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Intraday Alert
Better Sept jobs = good. Port strike suspended = good. Incremental good news past 24 hours = allowing tailwinds to shine
The Sept jobs report came in better than expected at +254k versus the Street consensus at +150k. This was a clean beat driven by restaurants (+69k) and even wages incrementally improved plus positive surprise on the unemployment rate (fell to 4.1%). The past 24 hours has seen incrementally positive news...
- First Word
Sept jobs report - upside vs 150k consensus better. Watch the VIX to sense when Oct "iffy" period ending.
VIDEO: We are watching the VIX to get a sense when the "iffy Oct" period might end, both VIX falling below 17 and VIX term structure "uninverting." As for Sept jobs report (Fri) we expect markets to react more positively if jobs is stronger. Please click below to view our Macro...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Sept jobs report - upside vs 150k consensus better. Watch the VIX to sense when Oct "iffy" period ending.
VIDEO: We are watching the VIX to get a sense when the "iffy Oct" period might end, both VIX falling below 17 and VIX term...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Incoming data today supporting of "no landing" including MBA mortgages and ADP. Tailwinds stronger than headwinds
VIDEO: Incoming data today is supportive of a "no landing" which is good. ADP jobs Sept suggests Friday jobs could surprise to upside. Tailwinds are...
First Word
October off to "iffy" start and headwinds emerge, but structural tailwinds stronger. We ultimately expect investors to "buy the dip" but watch the VIX term structure.
VIDEO: Already headwinds are emerging for October, but we believe the existing tailwinds are stronger and ultimately investors will buy this dip. Please click below...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: October off to "iffy" start and headwinds emerge, but structural tailwinds stronger. We ultimately expect investors to "buy the dip" but watch the VIX term structure.
VIDEO: Already headwinds are emerging for October, but we believe the existing tailwinds are stronger and ultimately investors will buy this dip. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:15). https://vimeo. com/1015021781/10d8649885? share=copy _____________________________ 42 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 7/16. Full stock list here -> Click...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Fed Chair Powell comments at NABE inline. 3 fundamental drivers remain tailwind into YE.
VIDEO: The S&P 500 closed Sept with a gain, making 8 of 9 months for gains, a sign of a strong market. While Oct has...
First Word
Important macro week ahead and ultimately supportive of dovish Fed. We continue to see higher upside for small-caps into YE.
VIDEO: A very heavy macro week ahead including ISM, JOLTS, VP debates, Fed speeches, and jobs report. All of this we expect to be dovish...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Important macro week ahead and ultimately supportive of dovish Fed. We continue to see higher upside for small-caps into YE.
VIDEO: A very heavy macro week ahead including ISM, JOLTS, VP debates, Fed speeches, and jobs report. All of this we expect to be dovish...
Intraday Alert
MARKETING DECK: Stay on Target - Fed is Dovish.
YEAR-END DYNAMICS: 3 FUNDAMENTAL FORCES IMPACTING STOCKS ▪ Fed launches easing cycle ▪ China economy and markets inflecting ▪ Post-election economy and cash on sidelines...