Earnings focus of coming week... "red hot" economy cooling is another support for "buy in May"

VIDEO: The biggest incremental support for stocks in May is the fact that the “red hot” economy is showing signs of cooling

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:07)

So far in May (3 trading days), the S&P 500 is up +1.8% and Nasdaq 100 up +2.6%. As we noted previously, we expect May to prove to be a positive month for stocks, as the -4% decline in April reset risk/reward favorably for equities:

• The case for positive equity gains in May are as follows:
  – Economy no longer seems “red hot” given softer April jobs report and March JOLTS
  – Fed is “dovish” and pushed back against the idea of hikes and of “stagflation”
  – 1Q24 EPS season strongest beats since 2021…
  – S&P 500 -4% decline in April alleviated “overbought” conditions
  – Investors de-leveraged in April
  – Bears became confident
• Of these factors, the most variant relative to consensus is the signs of economic cooling. This undermines those who view inflation as re-accelerating. Recall, the implied 1-yr inflation (using OIS futures) saw 1-year inflation at end of April as the highest since 2022. That is markets pricing in a significant acceleration of inflation. But with softer jobs, that is less the case.
• Simiarly, the Fed is less “on its heels” with arguing for a dovish interpretation of the incoming data. And especially after the April jobs report (Friday last week). Thus, we believe the hawkish views, which became extreme, are converging towards our base case. We continue to see a softening of inflation in coming months, which we trace to two factors: shelter cooling and auto insurance finishing its catch-up.
• Incoming macro is light this week:
  – 5/6 Mon 2:00 PM ET: Senior Loan Officer Survey
  – 5/7 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle index 
  – 5/10 Fri 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. 1 Yr. Inflation Expectations 3.3%e
• Given the light macro, earnings is likely the focus this week. This week, 59 S&P 500 companies report. And it has been an overall strong earnings season:
  – 80% of S&P 500 reported so far 1Q24
  – 81% are beating, and
  – overall beat is +7.5%, the highest since 2021
  – 46% of companies are reporting >10% EPS growth, best since early 2022
• Several “Granny Shots” are reporting this week:
  – Palantir PLTR 0.32%  5/6 after the close
  – AXON AXON -0.57%   5/6 after the close
  – Arista ANET -0.06%   5/7 after the close
  – TopBuild BLD -0.47%  5/7 after the close
  – Applovin APP -0.89%   5/8 after the close
  – See others below
• S&P 500 EPS growth in 1Q24 is +7.1%, so far, and +10.2% ex-Energy. In fact, 3 sectors have negative EPS growth:
  – Energy -24% YoY
  – Healthcare -24% YoY
  – Materials -21% YoY
• Of these, Healthcare and Energy are flipping to positive YoY in 2Q24. Thus, S&P 500 EPS growth is set to accelerate further in 2Q24 to +11% overall. This strengthening of earnings momentum, of course, is a tailwind for stocks.

Bottom line: We see “buy in May” continuing with key macro the week of May 13th…

This is a light macro week, but the earnings will be important and watched. The seasonals are still favorable as well and as we noted previously, when 1Q is positive + April is negative, May is up 83% of the time. Thus, the favorable probabilities plus the cooling economy and dovish Fed plus cautious positioning point to gains in May.

We still favor those things working in 2024 so far:

• AI   NVDA -1.98%  CDNS -0.04%  ARM AMD 1.03%  AIQ -0.20%

• Ozempic-related  LLY -0.16%  NVO -0.92%

• Financials and Industrials XLI 0.11%  XLF 0.60%

• Bitcoin & Proxies BTC MARA -0.66%  PYPL 0.58%  COIN 4.06%  MSTR 9.93%

• Feb Stealth: Small-caps IWM 0.05%  IJR -0.02%

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36 Granny Shot Ideas and 44 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 4/16. Full stock list here -> Click here

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Key incoming data May 2024:

• 5/1 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
• 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Manufacturing PMITame
• 5/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
• 5/1 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC DecisionDovish
• 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Nonfarm ProductivityTame
• 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar Trade BalanceTame
• 5/2 8:30 AM ET: 1Q P Unit Labor CostsMixed
• 5/2 8:30 AM ET: Mar F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 5/3 8:30 AM ET: Apr Jobs ReportTame
• 5/3 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMITame
• 5/3 10:00 AM ET: Apr ISM Services PMITame
• 5/7 10:00 AM ET: Apr F Manheim Used vehicle index
• 5/10 10:00 AM ET: May P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 5/13 11:00 AM ET: Apr NYFed 1yr Inf Exp
• 5/14 6:00 AM ET: Apr Small Business Optimisim Survey
• 5/14 8:30 AM ET: Apr PPI
• 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr CPI
• 5/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Retail Sales Data
• 5/15 8:30 AM ET: May Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 5/15 10:00 AM ET: May NAHB Housing Market Index
• 5/15 4:00 PM ET: Mar Net TIC Flows
• 5/16 8:30 AM ET: May Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 5/17 10:00 AM ET: May M Manheim Used vehicle index
• 5/22 10:00 AM ET: Apr Existing Home Sales
• 5/22 2:00 PM ET: May FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 5/23 8:30 AM ET: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 5/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr F S&P Global Services PMI
• 5/23 10:00 AM ET: Apr New Home Sales
• 5/24 8:30 AM ET: Apr P Durable Goods Orders
• 5/24 10:00 AM ET: May F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 5/28 9:00 AM ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price
• 5/28 10:00 AM ET: May Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 5/28 10:30 AM ET: May Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 5/29 2:00 PM ET: May Fed Releases Beige Book
• 5/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q S 2024 GDP
• 5/31 8:30 AM ET: Apr PCE Deflator

Key incoming data April 2024:

• 4/01 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
• 4/01 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ManufacturingMixed
• 4/02 10:00 am ET: Feb JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
• 4/03 9:45 am ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMITame
• 4/03 10:00 am ET: Mar ISM ServicesTame
• 4/05 8:30 am ET: Mar Jobs ReportHot
• 4/05 9:00 am ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 4/10 8:30 am ET: Mar CPIHot
• 4/10 2pm ET: Mar FOMC Meeting MinutesTame
• 4/11 8:30 am ET: Mar PPITame
• 4/12 10:00 am ET: Apr P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 4/15 8:30 am ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
• 4/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Retail Sales DataMixed
• 4/15 10:00 am ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 4/16 8:30 am ET: Apr New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
• 4/17 9:00 am ET: Apr Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 4/17 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
• 4/18 8:30 am ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
• 4/22 8:30 am ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity SurveyTame
• 4/23 9:45 am ET: Apr P S&P Global PMITame
• 4/25 8:30 am ET: 1QA 2024 GDPTame
• 4/26 8:30 am ET: Mar PCETame
• 4/29 10:30 am ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 4/30 8:30 am ET: 1Q ECI Employment Cost IndexMixed
• 4/30 9:00 am ET: Feb S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
• 4/30 10:00 am ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame

Key incoming data March 2024:

• 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ManufacturingTame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMITame
• 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM ServicesTame
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services CommitteeDovish
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job OpeningsTame
• 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige BookTame
• 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm ProductivityTame
• 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsDovish
• 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs ReportMixed
• 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPISlightly Hot (as anticipated)
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPIMixed
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales DataTame
• 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame
• 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame
• 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market IndexTame
• 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame
• 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate DecisionDovish
• 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame
• 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMITame
• 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home priceTame
• 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDPTame
• 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame
• 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCETame

Key incoming data February 2024:

• 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
• 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
• 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
• 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
• 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
• 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
• 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
• 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
• 2/14 PPI RevisionsTame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook SurveyTame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales DataTame 
• 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index Tame 
• 2/16 8:30am ET January PPIMixed
• 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity SurveyTame 
• 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February PrelimTame 
• 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-MonthTame 
• 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting MinutesTame 
• 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
• 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity SurveyTame
• 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame
• 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDPTame
• 2/29 8:30am ET January PCETame

Key incoming data January 2024:

• 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
• 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
• 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
• 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
• 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
• 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
• 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
• 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
• 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
• 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
• 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
• 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
• 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
• 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
• 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
• 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
• 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
• 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
• 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
• 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December 2023:

• 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
• 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
• 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
• 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
• 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
• 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
• 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
• 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
• 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
• 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
• 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
• 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
• 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
• 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
• 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
• 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
• 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
• 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
• 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November2023:

• 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
• 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
• 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
• 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
• 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
• 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
• 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
• 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
• 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
• 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
• 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
• 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
• 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
• 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
• 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October2023:

• 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
•  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
•  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
•  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
• 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
•  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
•  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
•  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
•  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
•  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
•  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
•  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
• 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
• 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
•  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
•  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
•  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
•  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
•  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
•  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
•  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September2023:

•  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
•  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
•  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
•  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
•   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
•  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
•  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
•  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
•  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
•  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
•  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decisionMarket saw Hawkish
•  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
•  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
•  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
•  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
•  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August2023:

• 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
• 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
• 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
• 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
• 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
• 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
• 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
• 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
• 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity SurveyNeutral
• 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
• 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
• 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
• 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
• 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July2023:

• 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
• 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
• 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
• 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
• 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
• 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
• 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
• 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Indexin-line
• 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET June PCETame
• 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost IndexTame
• 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflationTame

Key data from June2023:

• 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
• 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
• 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
• 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
• 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
• 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decisionTame
• 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
• 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May2023:

• 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
• 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
• 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
• 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
• 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
• 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
• 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
• 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
• 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
• 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
• 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
• 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings