THIS IS AN INTRADAY WORD FOR MEMBERS OF FS INSIGHT ONLY

Fed Chair Powell speaks today at the Economic Club of DC at 12pm ET. And investors are cautious in front of his appearance, as many expect Powell to come out "hawkish" relative to his dovish Feb FOMC presser last week. The rationale being the strong Jan jobs report signals renewed concerns the Fed has to do more, not less. This is evidenced in the fact that Fed fund futures are now pricing in 5.1% by June 2023, compared to 4.8% or so just last week.

Our contrarian take is the Fed will actually stick to the more "dovish" message. While the Street believes this has very low (like zero) probability, here is our reasoning:

Fed risks credibility if the message swings 180 degrees from an official meeting just 7 days earlier. This is the opposite of predictable and understandableIt took the Fed 3 great inflation reports (below expectations) before Fed acknowledged "disinflation" -- so will one strong jobs report cause Fed to suddenly want to accelerate hikes?There are many problems with this Jan jobs report, including the fact that much of jobs dynamics in Jan is a function of how "seasonal layoffs" playout. That is, several economists note that if hiring is muted in Dec, Jan can see fewer layoffs. But this "s...

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