Powell testimony (3/7) suggests he wants financial conditions to tighten. But data remains key. Curious divergence of JOLTS vs LinkUp implies Feb “payback”. Per LinkUp, 90% industries see notable declines in openings MoM

Powell was a bit more "hawkish" than expected in his first day of testimony to Congress (Wed is House). Specifically:

Powell indicated Fed is prepared to raise rates at a faster pace if warranted. His statement "As I mentioned, the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes."In short, the Fed is making two changes that impacted markets. First, it is saying it is swayed by the Jan "hot" data and the prior revisions to inflation. Second, Fed also implying the "bar" is raised for how Fed sees slowing the pace.The reaction in markets was a jump in March and May hike expectations. An additional +15bp of higher rates, or 0.4 hikes, was priced in as shown in the first chart below. The YE Fed Funds moved by a similar amount while the 2-yr yields rose +12bp to >5%.In a sense, Powell's comments sort of imply the Fed would like to see Financial Conditions tighten. And this higher level of hikes is the market's attempt to reflect this.But while this had an effect of causing a rise in the VIX (+6% to 19.6) and hurting equ...

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