Entering October with a "cluster of worries" but stocks so oversold, we see reasons for upside

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STRATEGY: Entering October with a "cluster of worries" but stocks so oversold, we see reasons for upside

COVID-19 is moving to the northern US states... but overall trends positive
COVID-19 overall remains in retreat in the US, evidenced best by looking at the 7D delta chart below.  And aside from the distortions associated with Labor Day, we see see that the delta in cases are consistently negative and thus, pointing to a decline in cases. 

- COVID-19 is impressively improving overall in the US
- and the mix effect of rising cases in the North vs falling in the South is still on balance declining overall
- this is good

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...daily cases could slip under 100,000 per day next week
And on an aggregate basis, the case figures look ready to dip below 100,000 cases per day by sometime next week.  But there is a mix shift taking place:

- cases are declining in the South- but flu season is starting across the US- this generally leads to a rise in cases in northern states- the state-level data is already showing this- IHME forecasts that overall cases might start to creep up in mid-Octobe...

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