stocks
- Daily Technical Strategy
Happy Holidays. Hope your holiday season proves safe, happy and healthy. I will be taking the final week off to spend with my family during the holidays. There won’t be any written reports until January. Thanks as always for your support and interest in my work. ...
- Your Weekly Roadmap
Stocks Decline for 2nd Straight Week Amid Recession Fears
Good evening, Stocks continue to sink, dragging markets further down for a second consecutive weekly loss. The S&P 500 closed Friday down 19.68% on the year, despite a CPI print Tuesday showing that inflation is cooling. Core CPI, which excluded the more volatile food and energy components, rose +0.2% month-over-month,...
- First Word
Flat equities after "hot" Nov jobs report shows stocks proving more resilient than consensus expects... why is S&P 500 drawdown worse than Germany, China or Japan? Still see rally into YE towards 4,400-4,500
The strong November jobs report (on 12/2) of +263k vs 200k consensus (plus strong wage growth) gave markets every excuse to sell off sharply:Strong jobs = Fed needs to tighten further = bad for stocksS&P 500 opened down -1.2%but gained throughout Friday and closed essentially flat (-0.12%) Friday trading is...
- Signal From Noise
5 Stocks for Times That Are A-Changin’
The line it is drawn, The curse it is cast, The slow one now, Will later be fast, As the present now, Will later be past, The order is rapidly fadin', And the first one now, Will later be last, For the times they are a-changin' -Bob Dylan, 1964 Revolution...
- First Word
Big data week ahead (JOLTS/FOMC) but bias positive as inflation discussion now more "two-sided" and stocks are not doing what consensus expects.
The reasons for stocks to continue falling are well known, among them:inflation too highFed going to keep pressure on marketsEurope entering a recessionChina zero COVID lockdown continuesEarnings are slowingStock charts look like 2008 and many pundits say 2022 will be worse than 2008Russia-Ukraine war will linger for years Last week,...
- First Word
Nasdaq went "no bid" on 9/13 with zero stocks advancing. 13 of 13 times, Nasdaq 100 higher median 12M gain 21%. When already >25% drawdown, median gain +64%
In 2H2022, there have been two separate days where markets saw massive declines:post-Jackson Hole on 8/26post-August CPI on 9/13 In both instances, equites were reacting to re-calibration of Fed expectations. That is, when investors see risk of tighter Fed, stocks have fallen in a broad retreat. The negative reaction to...
- First Word
Nasdaq down 7 days in a row, actually a constructive signal. Since 1970, stocks higher 74% of time 1M, 3M, 6M later.
Equities have sold off seemingly continuously since Jackson Hole (8/26), as the strong message from the Fed and uncertainty around Russia, China and economy have pushed equities to become "no bid" -- in fact, as many noted, the Nasdaq is down 7 consecutive days. Since 1970, this is pretty uncommon,...
- Your Weekly Roadmap
Markets Have First Down Week in Four, Meme Stocks Make a Comeback
Good Evening: The market had its first down week after a strong rally. Macro concerns are high and there’s no shortage of bears on the street. At the same time, inflation rolling over has proven a strong catalyst. When inflation is high bonds and stocks are positively correlated, which gives...
- The Wall Street Debrief
Markets Have First Down Week in Four, Meme Stocks Make a Comeback
Good Evening: The market had its first down week after a strong rally. Macro concerns are high and there’s no shortage of bears on the street. At the same time, inflation rolling over has proven a strong catalyst. When inflation is high bonds and stocks are positively correlated, which gives...
- First Word
If 73% was peak (% stocks >20% off highs), “buy the dip” regime is back = 2H rally
Investors remain broadly cautious on equities. This is completely understandable given the carnage in markets this year, along with the great uncertainties associated with the trifecta of rising inflation, Russia-Ukraine war and "negative shocks" delivered by Fed hawkish policy. But as a counterpoint, one can be constructive if one believes...
- Signal From Noise
Three Stocks For Elevated Inflation and Volatility
"I like to compare the Fed's problem to the challenge of adjusting the shower in an old hotel, where there's a lag of 20 to 30 seconds between the time you turn the faucet and the time the water temperature changes. It's very hard to avoid scalding yourself or freezing...
