• Signal from Noise
Thu December 1

The line it is drawn,  The curse it is cast,  The slow one now,  Will later be fast,  As the present now,  Will later be past,  The order is rapidly fadin',  And the first one now,  Will later be last,  For the times they are...

5 Stocks for Times That Are A-Changin’
  • First Word
Mon October 31

Big data week ahead (JOLTS/FOMC) but bias positive as inflation discussion now more "two-sided" and stocks are not doing what consensus expects.

The reasons for stocks to continue falling are well known, among them:inflation too highFed going to keep pressure on marketsEurope entering a recessionChina zero COVID lockdown continuesEarnings are slowingStock charts look like 2008 and many pundits say 2022 will be worse than 2008Russia-Ukraine war will linger for years Last week,...

  • First Word
Fri September 16

Nasdaq went "no bid" on 9/13 with zero stocks advancing. 13 of 13 times, Nasdaq 100 higher median 12M gain 21%. When already >25% drawdown, median gain +64%

In 2H2022, there have been two separate days where markets saw massive declines:post-Jackson Hole on 8/26post-August CPI on 9/13 In both instances, equites were reacting to re-calibration of Fed expectations. That is, when investors see risk of tighter Fed, stocks have fallen in a broad retreat. The negative reaction to...

  • First Word
Wed September 7

Nasdaq down 7 days in a row, actually a constructive signal. Since 1970, stocks higher 74% of time 1M, 3M, 6M later.

Equities have sold off seemingly continuously since Jackson Hole (8/26), as the strong message from the Fed and uncertainty around Russia, China and economy have pushed equities to become "no bid" -- in fact, as many noted, the Nasdaq is down 7 consecutive days. Since 1970, this is pretty uncommon,...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri August 19

Markets Have First Down Week in Four, Meme Stocks Make a Comeback

Good Evening: The market had its first down week after a strong rally. Macro concerns are high and there’s no shortage of bears on the street. At the same time, inflation rolling over has proven a strong catalyst. When inflation is high bonds and stocks are positively correlated, which gives...

Markets Have First Down Week in Four, Meme Stocks Make a Comeback

Good Evening: The market had its first down week after a strong rally. Macro concerns are high and there’s no shortage of bears on the street. At the same time, inflation rolling over has proven a strong catalyst. When inflation is high bonds and stocks are positively correlated, which gives...

  • First Word
Wed August 3

If 73% was peak (% stocks >20% off highs), “buy the dip” regime is back = 2H rally

Investors remain broadly cautious on equities. This is completely understandable given the carnage in markets this year, along with the great uncertainties associated with the trifecta of rising inflation, Russia-Ukraine war and "negative shocks" delivered by Fed hawkish policy. But as a counterpoint, one can be constructive if one believes...

Three Stocks For Elevated Inflation and Volatility

"I like to compare the Fed's problem to the challenge of adjusting the shower in an old hotel, where there's a lag of 20 to 30 seconds between the time you turn the faucet and the time the water temperature changes. It's very hard to avoid scalding yourself or freezing...

Equities become ‘no bid’ and %-stocks >50D now 2.0%...4 stocks (of 9) need to fall to reach 1.2% seen Mar 23, 2020 and Dec. 24, 2018

Equities have suffered an utter meltdown in the past week as the hot inflation implications of U Mich and CPI pushed stocks into “no bid.” There are many explanations offered for this, but the ultimate takeaway is that equities are in the midst of liquidation. As @jasongoepfert of Sentiment Trader...

  • First Word
Fri June 17

Equities become "no bid" and %-stocks >50D now 2.0%... 4 stocks (of 9) need to fall to reach 1.2% seen Mar 23, 2020 and Dec 24, 2018

Equities have suffered an utter meltdown in the past week as the hot inflation implications of U Mich and CPI pushed stocks into "no bid." There are many explanations offered for this, but the ultimate takeaway is that equities are in the midst of liquidation. As @jasongoepfert of Sentiment Trader...

  • First Word
Mon May 16

China ending Shanghai lockdowns sigh of relief and further alleviating downside pressure on stocks

WEBINAR ALERT: 5/19 AT 2PM ET FOR FSINSIGHT MEMBERS We are delighted to announce we are hosting a webinar with Tom DeMark, founder of DeMark Analytics.Equities have been in a relentless downturn since the start of 2022.While valuations have become considerably more attractive, and sentiment rock bottom, investors are still...