First Word

Markets anxious whether Fed makes "dovish" tones on Dec FOMC rate decision. Even if disappointing, we are buying the dip.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We discuss: Wed is probably most important catalyst between now and YE, with the Dec FOMC rate decision.  We think the key is whether it makes sense there are still 7 hawks and 6 doves in FOMC.  Incoming data should push towards dovish.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 3:28).

The video in this report is only accessible to members

The December FOMC rate decision today (Dec 13) at 2pm ET is probably the most consequential catalyst for equity markets between now and year-end. Is there a scenario where the Fed says something that triggers markets peaking now and falling into YE?

In our view, that is unlikely. The Fed has been fighting an inflation war since early 2022. And in 2023, the incoming inflation data has been on a glidepath below consensus and Fed views. Thus, the Fed has had to be less hawkish with each progressive month. Yet, the Fed itself is dominated by hawks. As the hawks and doves chart below shows, the roster:- 7 hawks and megahawks- 6 doves and megadoves Does this make sense? Core inflation is tanking. And as we have written for much of 2023, this is almost solely due to housing and cars. And both are set to cool sharply in 2024. In fact, housing just needs to settle at the long...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free