Fri September 15

ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.

We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration:...

Mon September 11

Important week ahead, and we expect August CPI (9/13) of +0.20% core or less to further reduce odds of a Nov hike, a positive for equities. Even as UAW strike looms.

We discuss: An important week lies ahead, most notably August CPI on 9/13 but also $AAPL debut and potential UAW strike.  That said, we still view Sept as front-loaded on...

Fri September 8

Headwinds now, but expect tailwinds to prevail in Sept. Upward revisions in profits strongest argument against recession.

We discuss: How headwinds of VIX, yields, apprehension are growing.  But tailwinds are emerging this month as well.  The most notable is EPS revisions inflected positive and along with other...

Tue September 5

OIH and XOP favored within Energy as Supply cuts help boost Crude

US EQUITY MARKETS HAVE STALLED OUT GIVEN US TREASURY YIELDS HAVING TURNED BACK UP SHARPLY; GIVEN RECENT CORRELATION TRENDS, THIS MIGHT PERSIST THIS WEEK BEFORE STOCK INDICES RALLY BACK.  ENERGY...

Wed August 30

Energy likely outperforms in September

US EQUITIES HAVE NOW RETRACED MORE THAN 61.8% OF PRIOR DECLINE FROM LATE JULY AND HAVE SHOWN NO EVIDENCE OF TURNING DOWN.  YIELDS HAVE SLOWED THEIR DESCENT, WHILE THE US...

Wed August 9

Energy still strengthening, while Natural Gas has finally broken out

MARKETS HAVE ENTERED A WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL LOW WHICH LIKELY HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  US DOLLAR AND US TREASURY YIELDS LOOK TO BE ON THE VERGE OF...

Wed July 12

INTRADAY ALERT: June CPI report shows downside break in inflation = future path of Fed hikes likely lower = supports stocks

NEW: SECTION (ABOVE) ADDED IDENTIFYING KEY RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUPER GRANNIES Today's June CPI was very good, showing a downside break in core inflation (core CPI) and hints of sustainable decline...

Wed July 12

The last two "meaningful" CPI positive surprises (Oct 2022 and Feb 2023) saw +4%-5% 5D rally = 180 to 225 points today. Thus, 100 point gain could be "low end" of a potential rally.

NEW: SECTION (ABOVE) ADDED IDENTIFYING KEY RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUPER GRANNIES ________________________________________________ _TODAY'S NOTE WILL INCLUDE A SHORT VIDEO UPDATE. WE DISCUSS THAT OF THE LAST 8 CPI REPORTS, MARKETS HAD...

Tue July 11

Energy breakout makes this sector a lot more appealing

TREND BULLISH - EXPECT RALLY UP TO SPX 4550 INTO JULY EXPIRATION.  A LOWER THAN EXPECTED CPI PRINT COULD HELP SPX SURPASS 4458 WHICH WOULD HELP JUMPSTART THIS MOVE. Overall,...

Mon June 12

Energy trade requires patience after WTI Crude trend violation

TREND BULLISH- NO EVIDENCE OF ANY DETERIORATION IN SPX NOR QQQ.  TRENDS REMAIN POSITIVE AND DIPS SHOULD BE BUYABLE BARRING A BREAK OF $4200, WHICH IS NEAR-TERM SUPPORT Monday’s early...

Fri June 9

Strength in stocks YTD is explained by better fundamentals + drop in VIX. And now 26 groups are in solid positive trend (vs 4 a month ago). Next week remains one of most critical of 2023.

The upside breakout in equities puts the S&P 500 near 4,300, a key round number and near the August 2022 highs (4,325). Our base remains that S&P 500 will gain...

Thu May 25

Bifurcated market worth paying close attention to

TREND STILL BULLISH- EXPECTING UPCOMING PUSH BACK ABOVE SPX-4200 -ANY BREAK OF 4104 WOULD TURN TREND SHORT-TERM BEARISH Technology yet again has begun to dominate market performance and has begun...