First Word

Waller makes surprising "dovish" statements, strengthening case for stocks to "zig up" post Oct Core PCE on Thu.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We discuss: While stocks have been rangebound for the past week, interest rates and VIX meaningfully moved lower, and Tuesday aided by Fed Gov Waller's comments.  We see this as a divergence favoring a rise in stocks later this week.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 3:14).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

The S&P 500 is stuck in a trading range for the past week or so. One can point to the fact S&P 500 is up ~9% for the month, so flat for the past week doesn't mean a whole lot. However, interest rates (10Y) and the VIX have both fallen meaningfully in the past few days, so the question for me is this growing divergence:

Fed Gov Christopher Waller, a known hawk, made surprisingly dovish comments Tuesday at the American Enterprise Institute. The two most notable are:- he is "increasingly confident...get inflation back to 2%...without a sharp rise in the unemployment rate"- if inflation decline continues "… we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower" These are surprisingly dovish views and consistent with our take for the past few months. - Waller's first comment is "no landing" not even a soft landing- Idea of cutting rates is opposite of entrenched consensus "...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free