HY not making new wides, despite S&P 500 making new lows = divergence. HWOL data suggests JOLTS job opening ratio could fall to 1.85 for August (reported 10/4)

This week is even uglier than last week.

Financial markets have become even more wary this week, with markets concerned about a plethora of factors as the Fed remains committed to cooling inflation at a time when uncertainty is fueled by Russia-Ukraine war and diminished liquidity in markets. So investors are worried that something will break.

But in our view, the key interplay remains the trajectory of inflation and its ultimate influence on central banks. Tight labor markets and the view that "services" are less sensitive to interest rates, mean many investors see upside risks to inflation. But on the other hand, leading indicators such as goods, freight rates, home prices, gasoline, inflation surveys, market-based measures of inflation all point to softer inflation.

  • ultimately, this becomes a question when the cadence of data supports an inflection of inflation
  • a constellation of leading indicators point to goods inflation slowing and the largest services component, housing, has the "seeds of a peak" in place given the sharp downturn in home prices
  • but this remains a period where investors prefer to wait out the data
  • and hence, stocks suffer from a buyers' strike
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