TACTICAL BUY: Expect rally in S&P 500 +100 points (>4,500) post-June CPI on 7/12 as we see high probability of Core CPI undershooting consensus.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

NEW: Section (above) added identifying Key Recommendations and Super Grannies

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Today's note will include a short video update. We discuss why we are issuing a trading buy for S&P 500, looking for a 100 point gain within the next 5 days.  It is on the expectation of a light core CPI reading of +0.25% or better and would reverse the "higher for longer" Fed priced in last week. Please click to view. (Duration: 6:34).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

For the first time this year, we are issuing a short-term tactical buy call on the S&P 500. What this means is we expect the index to rally >100 points in the next week, reaching 4,500 or better, the highest level since April 2022. We do not typically issue such short term tactical calls, but given the softness of markets following the ADP and BLS jobs report, we think the timing makes sense.

The catalyst is our expectation that June Core CPI undershoots the consensus estimate of +0.30%, with an actual print of +0.25% MoM or lower. The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) will release the June CPI report on 7/12 (Wed). What would drive a downside read? The two primary drivers for the downside read is used cars (which should...

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