April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder "never short a dull market"

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

VIDEO: We discuss how next week's April CPI could increase market expectations for more Fed cuts.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:53).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

The S&P 500 is up ~2% so far this week, very impressive considering it has been a very light week on macro data and Fed speak and also given the "poor" reaction of equities to 1Q24 earnings. There is an adage "never short a dull market" and this week's nearly 2% gain is a reminder of that. Total gains for S&P 500 in May now top +3.5%.

What can we garner from stocks rising in a "dull week"?- first, it suggests investors massively de-risked in April, and need to re-risk- second, markets may be "course correcting" as “red hot” economy thesis questionable- third, the drift higher, in our view, is evidence that the dominant view in markets is “hawkish” and “bearish” Recall, there were many pundits and strategists who argued the top is in for 2024 and they wanted to sell in May. By contrast, our view has been this fear would shift to "buy in May" for the multiple reasons previously discussed. Next week is a very heavy macro week, so the data is coming back on:- 5/13 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Apr NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp &...

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