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US Equity indices and Treasury yields remain quite choppy, but the path of least resistance remains lower over the final couple weeks of September.  Treasury yields look likely to break out to new 2023 highs, and I suspect this will be short-term negative for Equities.  Only on a $TNX break under 4.05% would it be right to trust an Equity bounce in Sept.

S&P’s range-bound pattern remains intact, and it’s difficult to make a strong case for any directional movement, though a few clues remain present to consider:

Yields remain within striking distance of 2023 highs, and this has been a bearish factor for Equities in recent months.

Short-term structure looks bearish based on Elliott-wave patterns.  Moreover, momentum is negatively sloped on daily and weekly charts.

Seasonality suggests that September might still prove difficult given intra-month tendencies.

Cycles show that US Equity markets likely will remain under pressure until after September expiration, while other composites show a low in October.

US Dollar and Treasury Yield DeMark-based exhaustion on weekly charts seems to suggest possible weekly exhaustion in 2-3 weeks.  Given recent correlation trends, this should se...

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