This week the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meets on Tuesday and Wednesday to make its next decision on interest rates. The general expectation is that rates will remain steady. On Wednesday, May 1, at 2:00pm the Fed will put out the official FOMC statement and at 2:30 Chair Powell will have his regular post-meeting press conference.
As someone who has worked and followed Washington for many years, what I find particularly interesting about the Chair’s presser is that, unlike almost any other similar event I can think of, the minutes of the meeting are released three weeks later. When Powell answers the questions, he knows that if he isn’t fairly presenting the views of the Committee and what transpired will become a big story in three weeks. It is why I find these sessions particularly important as it gives better insight in what the thinking of the Committee is rather than just reading the official statement.
The next summer meetings of the FOMC will be on June 11-12 and July 30-31. No meeting will occur in August.
House and Speaker’s week ahead
The House returns after a week-long break following its tough vote to provide military assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The bill passed when Speaker Mike Johnson joined forces with the Republican Chairs of the House Armed Services and Intelligence Committees and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries to win a bipartisan vote. The bill then easily passed the Senate and went to the White House for Biden’s signature.
However, with the return of the House the Speaker will have to face the anger of his most conservative Members who opposed giving aid to Ukraine. Ironically, Speaker Johnson had joined these very conservative Members in the past, and it was the votes of these Freedom Caucus Members who played a key role in Johnson’s successful campaign to be Speaker.
At least three Republicans have announced that they will move to vacate the Office of the Speaker but haven’t set a date. With recent resignations from the House the Republicans only have a one seat majority; if these three Members vote to vacate on a strictly partisan vote Johnson, like his predecessor Kevin McCarthy, would be kicked out. However, some Democrats are seriously thinking of breaking with the tradition of straight party votes on the Speakership and voting for Johnson after his leadership in approving money for Ukraine and Israel.
The key vote on the Military Supplemental was on whether to approve money for Ukraine. On that vote the total was 311 to 112, and all the 112 NO votes came from Republicans. Indeed, a majority of the majority on a vote of 112 to 101 voted against the Ukraine money. The question now is how many of the 112 Republican NO votes on Ukraine will not move to vacate the Speaker’s office.
I started working as a House aide my senior year of college and served as both a Legislative Assistant and Chief of Staff and I can’t remember any situation anywhere near as precarious as the need to have some consistent leadership in the Chamber today. While there are many bipartisan coalitions and votes, in my memory there has never been a bipartisan vote for Speaker. This could truly be an historical moment.
China policy
Secretary of State Blinken has completed his trip to China as the Biden Administration continues its policy of bilateral engagement between the two global superpowers.
Blinken held a press conference before he left China and emphasized that the two nations have made some real progress on issues ranging from fighting narcotics trade to improved communications between their military leaders. Last week US Defense Secretary Austin had a teleconference with his Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun. It was their first such meeting since November 2022.
To dig deeper into the Secretary’s presser here is the State Department link to the transcript:
https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-press-availability-48
