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Inflation "past peak" thesis challenged with August CPI, but our view remains inflation set to fall

Inflation "past peak" thesis challenged with August CPI, but our view remains inflation set to fall

The upside August CPI report (higher inflation) roiled markets Tuesday, as economists and investors calibrated their expectations around the path of Fed policy into 2023:

  • CPI (mom) +0.12% for August vs median forecast -0.1%, prior -0.02%
  • Core CPI (mom) +0.57% for August vs. median forecast +0.3%, prior +0.31%
  • the negative "shock" for markets was the strengthening of CPI around labor-intensive components such as food away from home, medical services, education
  • while "goods deflation" was not reflected as apparel, vehicle maintenance and used cars showed strength
  • Fed forecasts for YE inched up +25bp, with markets now seeing 75/75/50-ish for Sept, Nov and Dec
  • and with this "upside shock" equities sold off sharply.
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The "inflationistas" certainly gained arguments with Tuesday's upside read in August CPI. But we think there is an over-reaction to the CPI report, as what appear to be inflationary pressures in labor contrast with recent soft business surveys around labor and pricing (see below). Here are our key takeaways:

"clock is reset" on when inflation is improving, as August CPI is now viewed as a "bad report"market technicals have turned negative, as noted by Mark ...

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