First Word

Looking into 2024, starting P/E at 15.3X (ex-FAANG) good entry point. Small-caps still our top call into 2024

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We discuss: how 7 factors are coming together to support PE expansion in 2024.  This is the key story.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 5:46).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We are in the final week of 2023 with a mere 2 trading days left. We lean that markets will rally into YE, given the strength of December already (up +5%). Given the trailing performance of fund managers, and the notion of "never short a dull market," we see the drift higher into the final days of 2023.

But the natural question is whether stocks are a good risk/reward into 2024. Our view remains yes. We outlined the multiple factors in our 2024 outlook published Dec 7 of this year. But the key is that we see the potential for P/E expansion as easing financial conditions plus better economic momentum drive this. Currently, the S&P 500 P/E (2025 EPS) is 15.3X, ex-FAANG. To me, this is really attractive especially considering the 10-yr is at 3.9% and yields potentially fall further in 2024.- FAANG P/E is 25X, which we see as reasonable given the quality of cos- Financials, our top large-cap sector, is 12.8X, a good risk/reward- Small-caps on a P/B are at 1999 lows, the launch point for a 12-year outperformanc...

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