We view any equity weakness (possible) post-March CPI as chance to BTD given magnitude of "trapped bears" and softening inflation trends

On the eve of the March CPI report (released on 4/12 at 8:30am ET), few investors have conviction on what to expect from the actual report -- in other words, most are "flat" going into a report with an uncertain outcome.

On the other hand, investor positioning still leans negative. This was discussed Monday by our Head of Technical Strategy, Mark Newton, who showed speculative S&P 500 futures net positioning is the most negative since 2011. That is a 12-year high. Wow. Moreover, the seasonals are positive with April expected to post a median +4% gain (83% win-ratio) based upon the "rule of 1st 5 days" and is the strongest month of the calendar year.We see March CPI's report as another possible catalyst for the "trapped bears" to cover their short positioning. And this could in turn, create a sizable upside equity rally. This is something that Newton has referred to in his report Monday, noting that in the short-term this could push the S&P 500 above 4,200 and then some.Street consensus (per Bloomberg, 64 estimates) is +0.39% Mar Core MoM (+0.5% Feb) and Mar YoY of +5.6% (+5.5% Feb). And there are 10 of 64 with an estimate between +0.25% and +0.35%, so there are a fair number expecting a downside read. The widely followed UBS economist, Samuel Coffin, expe...

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