The last two "meaningful" CPI positive surprises (Oct 2022 and Feb 2023) saw +4%-5% 5D rally = 180 to 225 points today. Thus, 100 point gain could be "low end" of a potential rally.

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Today's note will include a short video update. We discuss that of the last 8 CPI reports, markets had a positive reaction 6 of  8 times.  The two "surprises" saw 4%-5% rallies, or +180-225 points.  Thus, our 100 points rally tactical call might be on the low side.  Is the Fed funds of 5.5% "higher for longer" if Core CPI is 3% by Dec 2024?  We don't think so. Please click to view yesterday's macro minute. (Duration 4:10 ).

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The main event for this week, and arguably the main event for this month is the June CPI report. We even issued a "tactical Buy call" (100 points on S&P 500 by Friday this week) as we expect a material downside read on Core CPI of 0.25% or better MoM, compared to Consensus of +0.30%.

Of the last 8 CPI reports, the S&P 500 has risen and in two of them, rallied strongly:- Oct CPI (11/10) +5.3% 5D rally- Feb CPI (3/14) +3.8% 5D rally- So, +4%-5% rally is 180 to 225 S&P 500 points- Thus, 100 points could be a "low end" on a CPI beat This is by no means a "done deal" but the probabilities ar...

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