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As investors brace for a "hawkish"-leaning Sept FOMC, notwithstanding August CPI, progress seen on inflation since June FOMC

The September FOMC decision comes Wed at 2pm ET. Since Jackson Hole (8/26), markets have been on edge and investors have been bracing for more "hawkish" Fed commentary. This is best evidenced by the surge in yields (2Y and 10Y) and creeping higher of Fed peak expectations.

In short, investors are naturally nervous into the rate decision. But there are a few perspectives that should balance the negative bias by consensus:

if Fed raises +75bp (or even +100bp), this puts current Fed funds within 125bp of peak rateswith markets seeing +50 to +75bp for November, Fed will be largely done with hikes by year-endthe last big negative FOMC "shock" was the June FOMC meeting (where Fed hastily shifted to +75bp)as we discuss below, the "hard" (CPI, PPI) and "soft" (surveys) show meaningful improvement into this Sept FOMCthis is also true of market-based measures such as inflation breakevens, which are vastly better compared to June, with 2-yr and 5-yr back to 2%-ish levelsmany investors believe the clock on CPI has been reset with the negative shock of August. But we believe that given other indicators, and the possibility of Sept improving (unknown at this time), the Fed could revisit the notion July was the first "greenshoots"market-based measures can reset quickly, so if "hard...

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