Stocks overshot to downside even with inflation risks. Indeed.com shows material weakening in labor markets = reduced wage inflation risk

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Inflation expectations (market-based) falling past 6-8 weeks...

Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions, COVID-19 policies, China lockdowns, worker fear and of course, strong economic growth. And because there are so many factors, it is difficult for markets to assess where the Fed's fight against inflation stands. And this uncertainty weighs heavily on markets. From the Fed's standpoint, they are using tools to try to slow down aggregate demand, while many of the roots of the inflationary pressures are supply related.

But here is the interesting thing. Market-based measures of inflation, using 12-month T-bills less 12-month TIPS (USGGBE01 on Bloomberg) have been falling since mid-March. As shown below, this figure peaked at 6.3% and has since drifted towards 4.8%.

  • While still not close to the "2%" goal of the Fed
  • this inflation metric is 70% on its way back to 4%-ish, which is the level seen in most of 2021

Similarly, the market's expected implied Fed Funds rate by YE 2022 has been pinned at 2.75%.

8 additional hikes into YEmultiple Fed off...

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