• US Policy
Mon January 30

On Tuesday and Wednesday this week the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meets to decide on the next step for the Fed to take on fighting inflation with interest rates.  I share the view of most Fed watchers that the Committee is likely to raise...

Key takeaways from FOMC = gut check means markets too hawkish = good
  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri December 9, 2022

Markets End Lower Ahead of Fed Week, November CPI

Good evening, The chop continues ahead of two significant events on the year-end calendar: the November CPI report releases Tuesday, Dec. 13, and the Federal Reserve’s final meeting in 2022 is Wednesday, Dec. 14. An expected rate decision should dictate how markets end the turbulent year. Will we see a...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri November 18, 2022

Markets Down for The Week on Tough Talk From Fed But Bounce on Friday

“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”- Mark Twain There’s a lot of complex jargon and intimidating math associated with markets, as there should be. When someone’s managing many billions of dollars, obviously you’re going to attempt to get the...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri November 11, 2022

Markets Shrug Off Disappointment After Red Wave Fails to Materialize, Climb on Decelerated Inflation Numbers

We saw three major influences on the markets this week: the midterm elections, the weeklong drama around the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, and Thursday’s inflation-data releases. Ultimately, the market ended the week strongly. The SPX was up 5.88% for the week, the Nasdaq rose 7.78%, and Treasury yields fell,...

  • First Word
Tue November 8, 2022

Post-midterm results support 2H rally... plus, if Republicans take Senate, even stronger Energy gains (despite conventional wisdom)

Equities have been mostly rising for the past 18 trading sessions following the abrupt reversal on the very "hot" Sept CPI (Oct 13). And markets are at an important crossroads this week -- this week has two events with major implications for financial markets and the economy.Our overall takeaway is...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri November 4, 2022

Markets Rally Friday After Mixed Jobs Numbers, But Down on The Week After Hawkish FOMC Press Conference Prompt Rate Fears

Markets were down for the week after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting poured cold water on dovish hopes but rallied on Friday after mixed jobs data. Chairman Powell said that it was “premature” to consider a pause. Also, the Chairman specified he would prefer to overtighten, though he did not think they...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri October 21, 2022

Markets Rally on Hopes for Fed Pause, Earnings Have Been Mixed

Markets had their best day since June in a furious rally that was led by Materials, Financials and Technology. This was the third positive week in a row, and the first three-week winning stretch all year. A Wall Street Journal article by Nick Timiraos renewed hopes that the Fed would...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri October 14, 2022

Markets Have Wild Ride After Hot CPI Report

Well, that was a truly hectic week in markets. If you don’t like the direction prices are going, just wait a few minutes. The CPI came in hot. It was up 8.2% on a YoY basis and 0.4% for the month, which was above the 0.3% estimate. The report was...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri October 7, 2022

Markets Start Week With Powerful Risk-On Rally and Sell-Off Friday on Strong Jobs Report

“It is always from a minority acting in ways different from what the majority would prescribe that the majority, in the end learns to do better.”- Fredrich August von Hayek Open-mindedness and a willingness to learn are crucial to sustained investing success. Many investors may ignore content that differs from...

  • First Word
Mon September 19, 2022

Sept FOMC... markets expect +75bp and "hawkish" surprise less likely given last 4 weeks. Market's reaction to August CPI one of 10 worst since 1970.

The Fed's September FOMC meets this week and a rate decision will be made on 9/21. Last week, equities suffered the largest weekly loss in 2H2022 so far, falling 4.8% (4th worst week of 2022) on the heels of the August CPI.consensus is looking for +75bpfutures markets pricing in roughly...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri September 16, 2022

All Eyes on Powell as Markets Struggle Amidst August CPI Report

Good Evening, Markets had a treacherous week following the hotter-than-expected August CPI print, with major indexes posting their worst weekly performances in months. Following Tuesday’s CPI release, the Nasdaq 100 went completely “no-bid”, all 30 stocks in the DJIA declined, as did all 11 sectors in the S&P 500. Yields...

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