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markets

Good Evening: In times of uncertainty, Abraham Lincoln quoted lines from Shakespeare’s _Hamlet_. “There’s a divinity that shapes our ends, / Rough-hew them how we will.” Hamlet is acknowledging that there are many things outside of his control. The point is that much of life,...

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Less “I” on horizon. Markets can see through weaker “e” if “I” disinflating

Cooling of inflation (“i”) aka disinflation is Fed primary focus and in 1H2022, the sole focus of markets. Obviously, there remains the question of how quickly inflation can cool, and this lack of visibility unsettles markets. But as we discuss below, energy prices have dropped sharply in the past few...

Markets Rally Hard on Friday, All Sectors Green

Good Evening: In times of uncertainty, Abraham Lincoln quoted lines from Shakespeare’s _Hamlet_. “There’s a divinity that shapes our ends, / Rough-hew them how we will.” Hamlet is acknowledging that there are many things outside of his control. The point is that much of life, and markets, is shaped by...

Markets Rally Hard on Friday, All Sectors Green

Good Evening: Markets had a strong week and rallied robustly on Friday. Stocks rallied into the close and ended near sessions highs. All sectors were in the green. The top three sectors on Friday were Materials, Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Earlier in the week Defensive sectors like Healthcare, Utilities and...

Markets Rally Hard on Friday, All Sectors Green

Good Evening: Markets had a strong week and rallied robustly on Friday. Stocks rallied into the close and ended near sessions highs. All sectors were in the green. The top three sectors on Friday were Materials, Financials and Consumer Discretionary. Earlier in the week Defensive sectors like Healthcare, Utilities and...

Markets Sell-Off on Hot Inflation, Bad Consumer Sentiment

Good Evening: Markets were thrashed on Friday by a white-hot CPI print and also the lowest level for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey in the entire history of the indicator. Over the last year, Energy rose 34.6%, with gasoline even higher, and groceries jumped 12%, but the levels...

  • US Policy
June 10

Congress focused on guns and 01/06, markets await Fed

The DC week was highlighted by a dramatic evening of testimony before the 01/06 House Committee; time will tell if there is any political impact on the case the Committee is building against former President Trump.  This week also saw talks between a bipartisan group of Senators proceed behind closed...

Markets Sell-Off on Hot Inflation, Bad Consumer Sentiment

Good Evening: Markets were thrashed on Friday by a white-hot CPI print and also the lowest level for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey in the entire history of the indicator. Over the last year, Energy rose 34.6%, with gasoline even higher, and groceries jumped 12%, but the levels...

Is The Bottom In? Markets Have Positive Week After PCE

Good Evening: Markets broke an 8-week losing streak. The beginning of the week was tough, and not much has changed regarding the many risks facing markets other than inflation appears to be cooling. Despite this much-needed relief, let’s also remember that Chairman Powell said, “This is not a time for...

Is The Bottom In? Markets Have Positive Week After PCE

Good Evening: Markets broke an 8-week losing streak. The beginning of the week was tough, and not much has changed regarding the many risks facing markets other than inflation appears to be cooling. Despite this much-needed relief, let’s also remember that Chairman Powell said, “This is not a time for...

Stocks overshot to downside even with inflation risks. Indeed.com shows material weakening in labor markets = reduced wage inflation risk

Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions, COVID-19 policies, China lockdowns, worker fear and of course, strong economic growth. And because there are so many factors, it is difficult for markets to...