FLASH MARKET COLOR: Textbook “Market chop” this week. Pattern 7-10 days of chop post-new market highs. Friday is quadruple witching. Probabilities favor market rally next week.

STRATEGY: We think today is textbook chop and probabilities favor a rally next weekEquity markets faltered today, and the ostensible factor is the rise in interest rates, as the 10-year moved to 1.74%.  And the market indices masked a broader decline in the markets:- S&P 500 down -1.5%- Nasdaq 1000 and Russell 2000 down -3%- Energy -4.5%- VIX up modestly to 21.58 (up 12%, or ~2 points)In fact, the only sector up today:- Financials +0.6%Taking a step back, the question on everyone’s mind is whether today’s decline hints at:- option 1, the prospects for a broader decline — ala, is this elusive 10% correction finally starting?- option 2, is this another “rate-mageddon” panic and markets going to recover next week?We believe option 2 is underway...We believe option 2 is what is taking place today.  Consider these points:First, we know financial markets have developed inflation anxiety, given the absence of inflation risk for the past 20 years, and arguably the last 40 years.  Thus, it is understandable to see “fire, ready, aim” every time interest rates surge.Second, while 10-yr rates surged today, the VIX hardly budged.  It was >30 last time the 10-year was above 1.6%.  So, we are not seeing hedge funds seeking broader market protection...

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