• Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri October 28

Markets had their fourth consecutive weekly gain and showed stunning resilience in the face of headwinds. Markets rallied very strongly and closed at the highs of the day and the VIX went to the 25 handle. The Dow is on track for its strongest monthly...

Nathan Anderson Vm N2EW Kjw Unsplash
  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri September 30

Few Bulls Standing Amidst Rising Market Volatility

Good Evening, There is an adage on Wall Street: _MARKETS TAKE THE STAIRCASE UP, AND THE ELEVATOR DOWN._ This week, however, markets got excited and took the elevator both ways in a rollercoaster tape for the stock market. The major averages took a unanimous tumble this week, with both the...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
Fri September 9

Market Has First Week Up After Three Down, Dollar Reversal Spurs Risk Rally In Equities

Good Evening, Stocks ended up this week up after three straight weeks down. Shortly after opening, the S&P 500 moved above its 100-day moving average. It was a risk-on rally led by Communication Services, Energy, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary respectively. The Nasdaq outperformed and Bitcoin also took off, climbing about...

The August 1982 moment: bear market “bottom” before Fed pivots – if true, new highs coming sooner than most expect

The biggest takeaway for me on events of this week? Convincing and arguably decisive evidence the “bottom is in” — the 2022 bear market is over.this was a big data week, with FOMC, 2Q GDP, housing and PCE (today)a huge miss on GDP, yet markets rallyFed raises +75bp and says...

  • First Word
Fri July 29

The August 1982 moment: bear market "bottom" before Fed pivots -- if true, new highs coming sooner than most expect

The biggest takeaway for me on events of this week? Convincing and arguably decisive evidence the "bottom is in" -- the 2022 bear market is over.this was a big data week, with FOMC, 2Q GDP, housing and PCE (today)a huge miss on GDP, yet markets rallyFed raises +75bp and says...

LEAD VS LAG: Case strengthening inflationary drivers peaked (“lead”), even if CPI remains elevated (“lag”) = market perception lagging

Incoming data this week has pointed to a pronounced softening of economic momentum globally, and this has pushed commodity prices lower and similarly pushed down interest rates. And this has shifted market focus:inflation vs recessiontwo paths to ruin, either inflation wrecks the economy or a recession wrecks the economyweakening incoming...

  • First Word
Wed June 15

Markets far more de-risked into June FOMC. And +75bp brings rates closer to market expectations.

Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike (vs 50bp prior). This is a break from the forward guidance given by the Fed and has prompted multiple interpretations of this move. Source: Wall...

  • Alpha City
Fri May 27

My Work Suggests The Market Still Faces Several Risks

There was a bounce this week. As I've previously said, markets were getting tactically oversold, and I expected a tactical bounce after eight consecutive down weeks. Regardless of the positive price action today there are still plenty of signs that we are late in the cycle. Hence, you can probably...

Multiple signs economy shifting to “buyer’s market” vs seller’s = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening

Inflation and fears of surging inflation are top of mind. There are many causes behind this rise in inflation from supply chain woes, war-related disruptions, COVID-19 policies, China lockdowns, worker fear and of course, strong economic growth. And because there are so many factors, it is difficult for markets to...

  • First Word
Fri May 27

Multiple signs economy shifting to "buyer's market" vs seller's = downside to inflation = justify stocks strengthening

I had a conversation earlier this week with the owner of one of the largest privately held food producers in the US (tens of millions of pounds sized, so huge). RM, the owner spent the pandemic in Maui but was able to run his business remotely, and during the pandemic,...

How to View This Turbulent Market

“_If you’re invested in security and certainty, you are on the wrong planet._” – Pema Chödrön During our Friday morning meeting in New York, Mark Newton, head of technical strategy, drew a fascinating comparison between this environment—one of the more treacherous we’ve seen—and that of 1962. It was President John...