Fed speak this week shows Fed see supply-chains and commodities behind inflation = progress there supportive of possibility of post-Dec "pause"

In our multiple conversations with investors this week, the main question is why should any investor expect equity prices to stage any meaningful gain from here, in the midst of a Fed tightening cycle and in the midst of great uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine war, increasing stress in financial markets (UK issue tabled for now) and in the midst of massive gloom of CEOs and Americans and investors.

  • in a way, investors broadly only see one type of capitulation ahead
  • the stock market needs to "capitulate" with a VIX surge >40, or a 20% further drawdown, or a "hedge fund imploding" or some financial accident.
  • mostly, investors see this as the "path of least resistance"

But this is not the only "capitulation" that could lay ahead. There are other forms of "capitulations" that could similarly boost investor confidence, in turn, fueling a firm footing for equities:

inflation "hard data" could capitulate, syncing up with the "soft data" which have been showing growing signs of falling inflationThere has been little breakdown in goods inflation (less inflation, but not visible disinflation) and this "payback" could weaken overall inflationFed reaction function could "capitulate" and shift from banging 75bp at every strong CPI printAlternately, the Fed could shift t...

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