7D Delta Turns Positive, Market Chop Way Paves Way For Rally

Daily cases unfortunately have returned to slightly positive coming in at 58,468 which is up 2,869 cases from a week ago. The 7D positivity rate declined to 4.4% from 4.5% 7D ago. Importantly, hospitalizations and deaths are still moving in the right direction and are down 5.1% and 7.4% from 7 days ago respectively. Dr. Fauci said on Friday that up to 30% of the new US cases are due to the variants. Luckily, despite the vaccines not being as effective against some of the newer COVID-19 variants it still appears to prevent severe illness and hospitalization to the degree that it would mean the risk for overwhelming the hospital system which we may forget after all this time is still the primary reason for lockdowns that interrupt economic activity much lower. Be sure to check out point #3 in our dailies that monitors the progress in re-opening across the United States.

The 7D delta turning positive is definitely not a good thing. However, we wanted to point out that despite the very vocal criticism of the bears about vaccination progress the White House has actually achieved its’ goal of 100 million vaccines in 100 days 42 days early. This highlights a reality that we’ve been trying to keep our subscribers apprised of; the number of previously infected (those with natural immunity) plus those vaccinated is getting to a point where the R0 will begin to drop because the virus simply will eventually run out communicable subjects to come into contact with. This doesn’t mean the numbers suddenly go to zero, it means they steadily trickle down to zero.

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