Institutional equity investors have positioned for a recession…which means?
It is an understatement to say equities have been treacherous so far in 2022. It has been a cascade of scary developments from:

  • runaway inflation fears
  • Fed becoming hawkish
  • WWIII risks
  • “market top” calls
  • “yield curve about to invert” calls

Perhaps the “darkest” report is the following headline, shared by @DougKass on twitter from another sellside firm.

  • on March 4, 2022
  • this firm placed 10% odds of a “civilization ending nuclear war”
  • yup, 10%

To me, this is a bottom tick of market sentiment. Unless, of course, the world is hurtling towards nuclear WWIII.

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But as shown below, the 3/4/2022 was contemporaneous with a general panic by the market:

  • but the 2/24 lows held
  • despite a cascade of negative headlines
  • Fed hiked this week
  • market has continued to rally
The video in this report is only accessible to members
Institutional Equity investors are positioned for a recession = lots of bad news priced inFor now, this seems like a “win” — 2022 has not been easy. And Mark Newton, FSInsight’s Head of Technical Strategy, generally expects the broader equity markets to bottom around mid-2022. But as much as 1H remains “treacherous” for markets, we do not want to be a “risk-off only” 1H. This week reminds investors of the...

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