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US Equity indices and Treasury yields remain quite choppy, but the weakness coinciding with Yields pushing up still looks to extend this week which is one of the more seasonally bearish weeks of the Fall.   Trends and momentum are short-term negative.  Only on a TNX break under 4.05% would it be right to trust an Equity bounce in September

Tuesday brought about a break of early September lows for SPX.  This keeps the near-term trend negative, and Treasury yields are on the verge of breaking out to new 2023 highs.  Five-Year and 10-year Treasury yields did successfully achieve late day breakouts in Tuesday’s trading.

While the Treasury decline looks to be in its late stages, there doesn’t appear to be much technical reason for Yields to rollover.  DeMark exhaustion likely will take another 2-3 weeks.

Factors like cycles, sentiment, Elliott-wave structure and DeMark exhaustion indicators all suggest this yield rally is in its latter stages.   However, it seems premature that this might happen as of mid-September based on Wednesday’s outcome.

Overall, I suspect that SPX and QQQ might find it difficult to immediately break down under August lows, and any SPX weakness ...

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