SPECIAL REPORT: Oct likely bottom, but catalyst remains Fed. What works remainder of 2023. Webinar today at 2pm ET

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We are publishing a special report today highlighting why we believe Oct 12, 2022 was the low for this bear market cycle. That was 133 days ago, and in the intervening over 6 months since, the S&P 500 has managed to stay above its 200-week average, and since 1950, signals a low is in place. Similarly, the S&P 500 has managed two consecutive positive quarterly gains and since 1950, that has never happened in a bear market. In fact, there are at least 6 signs (more than that) that Oct 12, 2022 was the low.

Still, there is no consensus on Oct 12, 2022 representing the bear market low. In the traditional view, a bear market bottoms after the worst of a recession is underway. And in that cycle view, equities do not bottom until some sort of panic takes place:- a bottom in earnings - Fed intervenes or cuts rates- policymakers panic- public panics (VIX surge)- stocks fall sufficiently (ala 2008 50% decline)- or some variation of the above We highlight in this report there are many bear markets since 1900 (over 20) and they fall roughly into 4 categories:- business cycle bears (2018-19, 2015-16, 1956-57)- idiosyncratic (2020, 1987, 1962)- speculative bubbles (GFC, dot-c...

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