Feb jobs likely strong and add to Fed "behind" concerns. But SIVB sell-off contributing to tighter financial conditions (doing some work for Fed), means odds of +50bp in March ticked down slightly. Tough start to 8-week rally window.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with S&P 500 falling ~2% ahead of the important Feb jobs report released today (3/10) at 8:30am ET. Equities have been soft all week, but the weakness on Thursday arguably stems from two factors (not in any order):

First, the concerns of a "hot" Feb jobs report above the Street consensus of +225k and +0.3% AHE (avg hourly earnings MoM). Whispers are stronger and even Linkup forecasts as much as +365k. This heightens concern the Fed needs to re-accelerate the pace of hikes to +50bp from +25bp, a hawkish development.Arguably this second factor is more important, the capital raise by Silicon Valley Bank ($SIVB) triggered massive second order ripple effects causing S&P 500 Financials to fall 4%. The raise was to restore capital levels as losses from securities portfolios (higher rates) plus early stage companies using cash (but raising little), ate into the company's capital cushion. SIVB, the 16th largest bank in the US, is one of Tech industry's largest lenders and media stories suggest VC and PE firms might be advising founders to move cash away from SIVB -- essentially fueling a panic among Financials.The SIVB capital shortfall highlights the fact that banks collectively are sitting on sizable losses on loans due to the rise in int...

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