S&P 500 no longer fearful above 200D as our "unpopular opinion" of inflation undershoot now looking to be central case. Technology/FAANG arguably best upside 1H2023 story.

The S&P 500 is no longer "fearful" above the 200D

Friday (1/27/2023) is an important comeuppance day with two key pieces of incoming economic data:

  • Core PCE inflation (Dec) and
  • U Mich 1-yr inflation (Dec final).

Why is this day so pivotal? The incoming data will arguably determine which narrative best explains inflation and the course of the Fed for 2023 and beyond:

  • Consensus: inflation "sticky" so Fed needs to keep rates "higher for longer" to make sure inflation is "deader for surer" ala 1970s. Stocks remain in "whack-a-mole" mode with Fed.
  • Fundstrat: inflation hit a wall in October, proving inflation was largely transitory and Fed needs to "course correct" allowing financial conditions to ease. Thus, S&P 500 up >20% in 2023.
  • The incoming data for the past few weeks is supportive of our view and hence, equites are showing far more resilience that the consensus narrative.
  • The "unpopular" view is equities bottomed on 10/12 (below) when inflation "hit a wall" and the Fed is now behind the curve. This is akin to August 1982, and if this view (ours) is correct, equities will gain >20%
Take a look below and we can see the S&P 500 is now 5 days above the 200D moving average. This is the longest stretch since the start of this "inflation induced ...

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