The "maths" show probability of 2023 seeing >20% far higher than expected (53%). VIX key for 2023 returns, not EPS growth and 3 catalysts likely to make "opportunity" less "crisis"

Because of bludgeoning in 2022, most investors expect stocks to be "dead money" in 2023...

It would not entirely surprise anyone to say that most investors expect equity markets to "churn" in 2023. Basically, most investors believe the "crisis" environment of 2022 is spilling over into 2023. And most just see a litany of headwinds from Fed hikes to economy slowing to EPS contraction to "cash is king" to inflation "takes years to control."

  • so most investors and pundits, including many of the team at Fundstrat believe stocks will go "nowhere" in 2023.
The video in this report is only accessible to members

BASE CASE: The "maths" for what to expect in 2023, post a "negative return" year (2022)

Question: how common is a "flat" year? Our team calculated the data and it is shown below:

  • since 1950, there are 19 instances of a negative S&P 500 return year. In the following year,
  • stocks are "flat" (+/- 5%) only 11% of the time (n=2)
  • stocks are up >20% 53% of the time (n=10)
  • yup, stocks are 5X more likely to rise 20% than be flat
  • and more than half of the instances are >20% gains

So, does a "flat year" still make sense?

The video in this report is only accessible to members

As shown below, these probabilities are far higher than compared to typical years:

since 1950, based upon all 73 yearsstocks are "...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)