NVDA 4Q23 EPS increase was $10.7b of S&P 500 EPS gain $34.9B (31%). AMZN another 30%. Ex-bottom 15 cos, S&P 500 EPS growth >14%

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

VIDEO: NVDA accounted for 31% of all profit growth in 4Q23, so a strong argument against a bubble.  Inflation remains the unknown near-term.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (Duration: 5:02).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

With just a few trading days left in February, the S&P 500 is set to gain ~5%, bringing YTD gains to ~7%. As we noted early in February, given the strength of the Jan gains (>2%), the probability of a positive year jumps to 92%. Moreover, our YE target of 5,200 is likely low.

The median gain, using the precedent 15 years of similar Jan, implies 5,400 to 5,500 by YE. But we do not feel any urgency at this moment to adjust a YE target that is more than 10 months away. 4Q23 EPS season largely ended last week. $NVDA is one of the last major companies to report, and there are not even 20 EPS reports left. Overall, it has been a good earnings season with 78% beating by a median of 7%. And the bottoms up EPS figure has risen 3% to $55.20.  Are earnings tracking towards our 2025 EPS of $260? Here is some simple math:- 4Q23 EPS annualized is $221 ($55.20 x 4)- The "surprise" level is 7% and EPS is 3% higher than vs start of EPS- 4Q23 EPS growth is 7%, and >14% ex...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)