In 2023, Equities moved <1% (5D) in 4 of 4 FOMC meetings. July rate decision likely driving more sizable reaction, watch Nov FF futures odds of a hike.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

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Today's note will include a short video update. We discuss:  Markets wobbled last week and concerns of a correction growing. There are many fundamental catalysts this week that drive tactical impacts, the most important being July FOMC decision Wed.  We discuss why the market's reaction likely huge Wed.

Please click below to view yesterday’s Macro Minute (Duration: 5:33).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

There are 3 significant market events this week: (i) 3 of the FAANGs report this week; (ii) Wed is FOMC rate decision day and (iii) Friday is June PCE deflator. Of course, there are other events, and of all these, the key is the July Fed FOMC decision:

The S&P 500 moved <1% (5-day) on each of the 4 Fed decisions in 2023. So one might wonder why July FOMC would trigger a significant market move. In 2022, the S&P 500 saw sharp reactions to the FOMC rate decisions with 5D change of -6% to +6%. We think a greater than 1% move will take place post July FOMC decision. There are 3 reasons we see a sharper equity reaction ensuing, even as +25bp for July baked in:- first, Fed likely signals a "skip" for September. - second, starts to see "light at end of hike tunn...

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