As regional banks pressures spread, S&P 500 faces headwinds. But look for possible near-term bottom of banks (per Newton). April Jobs and CPI are next 2 key data points.

At the start of the week, I was hopeful that the combination of Fed decision day (5/3) and soft readings on labor (JOLTS, employment report) would cause markets to constructively reprice a Fed "pause" -- this is what we viewed as a positive resolution to the "make or break" week:

The Fed provided sufficient rationale for "pause" to become our base case (no hike in June) but equities fell sharply, down -3% since last Friday, while bonds and Fed futures rallied on the pause -- US 2Y fell from 4.04% to 3.77% (sizable move). So bonds rallied sharply while stocks tanked. Part of the reason for equity softness are driven by the spreading regional bank crisis and the growing concerns about the US debt ceiling and the "x" date approaching far sooner. During the FOMC press conference, the KBW Regional Bank Index fell -6% (see below) as Powell's comments of a "conditional pause" and need to stay "high for some time" placed additional pressure on regional banks. And Tom Block, Fundstrat's head of policy strategy, notes the impasse is particularly tough for the debt ceiling in 2023. On Thursday, the entire regional bank complex came under selling pressure again, but two stocks were into a downward spiral PacWest -51% ($PACW) and Western Alliance Bank -39% ($WAL) and both saw ...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

More from the author

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)