A Fed "pause" in spring is pregnant pause and a pretext for a substantial easing of financial conditions. Supports why stocks could rise 20%-25% in 2023.

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More than a few of our clients have told us that "falling inflation" is consensus and therefore priced into equities and these same clients tend to lean bearish as they view the next chapter in the market narrative as "falling EPS due to Fed hikes."

But I don't agree that falling inflation is consensus. There are multiple reasons discussed below, but let me start with my takeaways from a dinner last week. A good friend of mine hosted a group dinner of institutional investors (including the CIO of one of the large state endowments and a PM at one of the largest asset managers in the world).

Almost everyone at the dinner viewed inflation as a structural problem that will take years to fix. One cited the notion that real rates will remain high (3% or more) as the Fed wants to be certain inflation is dead and because the Fed wants 500bp of cushion for the next crisis.Another said they don't see how inflation can fall with labor markets this tight and the massive reflationary impact of reshoring assets to the US.Others seem to say the "high prices are here to stay" which is conflating that inflation is rate of change, not the current level of pricesMoreover, ...

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